Mel’s Mock: Then And Now

In Mel Kiper’s first mock-up of the 2012 draft last January, his top-5 looked like this:

1) Andrew Luck
2) Justin Blackmon
3) Matt Kalil
4) RGIII
5) Trent Richardson

The college season had just ended, and he had all the right names listed (though not in all the right spots.) He made some tweaks as the draft got closer — moving RGIII up, taking Blackmon out and putting Morris Claiborne in — but he had it surrounded. The general accuracy that he (and many prognosticators) demonstrated spoke to how clear-cut the top of the class was.

This season, Kiper has already changed three of his original top 5. Geno Smith went from out of the first round to the Eagles’ selection at four. His No. 2 pick is now projected be be taken late in the second round. It is all over the place.

Here is a side-by-side comparison between Kiper’s first mock (done on January 16) and his most recent. It helps illustrate the amount of uncertainty that surrounds this draft. It is also interesting to see how opinions shaped primarily by game tape can change through the pre-draft process.

Pick	Original	Current
1	OT Luke Joeckel	Luke Joeckel
2	DE Damontre Moore	Ezekiel Ansah
3	DT Star Lotulelei	Sharrif Floyd
4	CB Dee Milliner	QB Geno Smith
5	LB Jarvis Jones	Dee Milliner
6	DE Bjoern Werner	Dion Jordan
7	OT Chance Warmack	Eric Fisher
8	LB Manti Te'o	Jonathan Cooper
9	DE Barkevious Mingo	Barkevious Mingo
10	DE Dion Jordan	Chance Warmack
11	OT Eric Fisher	OT Lane Johnson
12	WR Cordarrelle Patterson	D.J. Fluker
13	LB Alec Ogletree	Star Lotulelei
14	DT Sheldon Richardson	Sheldon Richardson
15	DT Johnathan Hankins	Jarvis Jones
16	S Kenny Vaccaro	WR Tavon Austin
17	LB Ezekiel Ansah	Tyler Eifert
18	G Jonathan Cooper	DT Sylvester Williams
19	DE Sam Montgomery	CB Desmond Trufant
20	TE Tyler Eifert	Manti Te'o
21	RB Montee Ball	Alec Ogletree
22	OT D.J. Fluker	Kenny Vaccaro
23	WR Terrance Williams	Cordarrelle Patterson
24	OT Menelik Watson	Xavier Rhodes
25	DT John Jenkins	Kevin Minter
26	TE Zach Ertz	RB Eddie Lacy
27	WR Keenan Allen	WR Robert Woods
28	CB Xavier Rhodes	CB D.J. Hayden
29	LB Kevin Minter	WR Justin Hunter
30	DT Sharrif Floyd	OL Kyle Long
31	WR DeAndre Hopkins	Margus Hunt
32	DE Margus Hunt	S Jonathan Cyprien

Some observations:

— Smith was originally not listed as a first-round pick.  Same with teammate Tavon Austin and Alabama’s Eddie Lacy.

— Damontre Moore started out in the second slot. Kiper now has him going 58^th to the Broncos. Moore racked up 21 sacks over the last two seasons for Texas A&M.

— Dion Jordan moved up most boards post-Combine, including Kiper’s.

— Speaking of movement, how about Sharrif Floyd going from 30 all the way to 3?

— Luke Joeckel (1), Barkevious Mingo (9) and Sheldon Richardson (14) were the only three to stay put.

— This reminds us how much Manti Te’o has fallen in the mock world since his personal life became the focus.

— Lane Johnson is one of the hottest names out there; some even project him landing with the Eagles at 4. Not to be found on the first mock.

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