Eagles Decline, By the Numbers

Philadelphia Eagles defensive end Jason BabinJeffrey Lurie was banking on a rebound season. He looked at the players on this roster and envisioned a rise in production across the board that would take this team out of mediocrity and back to elite status.

Instead, the output has dipped. Very few on the roster are even flirting with the possibility of having a career year. Some have fallen off dramatically.

To illustrate, we compared individual performances from last season with the projected totals for 2012. (The projected numbers are under the premise that the player would appear in the exact number of games this season as they did in ’11.) Some players are pulling their weight. Others, not so much.

First up, the rushing game.

2011 RushingCarriesYards Average/CarryTouchdowns
LeSean McCoy27313094.817
Michael Vick765897.81

2012 ProjectionsCarriesYardsYards/CarryTouchdowns
LeSean McCoy2661,1254.23
Michael Vick824435.41

LeSean McCoy is putting up good numbers, especially given the circumstances. But there is no doubt he misses Jason Peters and company. As you can see, Michael Vick‘s yards/carry was down pretty significantly prior to suffering the concussion.

Speaking of Vick, here are the passing numbers:

Completion %Yards TDINTFumbles Lost
2011 Vick59.83,30318143
Projected 2012 Vick58.53,12716157

There is not one category that he was/is on pace to get better in. The lost fumbles really jump off the page.

Next up, the receiving game.

2011 ReceivingCatchesYardsTouchdowns
DeSean Jackson589614
Jeremy Maclin638595
Brent Celek628115
2012 ProjectionsCatchesYardsTouchdowns
DeSean Jackson661,0373
Jeremy Maclin526496
Brent Celek668142

DeSean Jackson is seeing a statistical rise post-contract, though the big play and touchdown totals are lower than desired. Brent Celek looks to be having a similar year, but this doesn’t account for his seven drops.  Jeremy Maclin‘s numbers are the most alarming considering that 2011 was the stronger campaign, and it was a season where he was dealing with a health scare for much of the year.  Maclin was expected to break out this season, but he went the other way.

The sharpest statistical decline can be found along the defensive line. The defense had 50 sacks last year. They are currently on pace for 26 in 2012. That is due in large part to the dip in production from Trent Cole, Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins.

2011 Pass RushSacksHurries
Trent Cole1144
Jason Babin1837
Cullen Jenkins5.525

2012 ProjectionsSacksHurries
Trent Cole241
Jason Babin745
Cullen Jenkins327

It is interesting to note that the hurries from last year to this season are pretty similar, but the sacks are way down. Like many of their teammates, they are not finishing the job.

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