New Poll Places McGinty Ahead of Toomey in Pa. Senate Race

A Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll conductor said the race is tied to the presidential election.

Katie McGinty, Pat Toomey

Katie McGinty photo by Donald Derosa, used under a Creative Commons license

A new poll has placed Democrat Katie McGinty ahead of Republican Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race.

The Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll, released over the weekend, shows McGinty ahead of Toomey by 43 percent to 38 percent among poll participants.

The poll also found Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton to have a nine-point lead over Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. Several polls released shortly after the Democratic National Convention in Philly in July also reflected progress for both Clinton and McGinty, though an Emerson poll released in late August placed Toomey over McGinty by 46 percent to 39 percent.

Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, tied the race to the presidential contest, telling the Morning Call that Trump’s ups and downs could affect how voters view Toomey, who is “tied to someone who he’s not very interested in being tied to.” Toomey has neither endorsed nor denounced Trump.

The Morning Call/Muhlenberg poll was conducted between September 12th and 16th and surveyed 405 likely general election voters. The poll has a margin of error of 5.5 percent, so the race could be even closer than it appears. According to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, Muhlenberg College receives an A polling grade and has a slight Republican bias.

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