Poll: Toomey Ahead in U.S. Senate Race, Trump Trailing Clinton by Three Points in Pa.

The Emerson College poll contrasts with other recent polls, most of which placed the Democratic candidates ahead of the Republicans in Pennsylvania.

Katie McGinty, Pat Toomey

Katie McGinty photo by Donald Derosa, used under a Creative Commons license.

A new poll from the Emerson College Polling Society claims Pennsylvania residents prefer Senator Pat Toomey to rival Katie McGinty in the U.S. Senate race.

The poll, which was released this week, found Toomey to hold a seven point lead over McGinty in Pennsylvania, with 46 percent of state poll participants preferring Toomey and 39 percent preferring McGinty. Ten percent of state participants said they were still undecided, however.

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton placed just three points ahead of Republican Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, the poll shows, with 46 percent of the state’s participants preferring Clinton and 43 percent backing Trump.

The poll found Clinton’s “unfavorability” ratings to be almost as high as Trump’s in Pennsylvania, with Trump receiving a favorability/unfavorability rating of 40%/58% and Clinton receiving 42%/55%. Among all three states surveyed – Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan – no more than three points separate the candidates in this section of the poll.

In all three states, women participating in the poll tend to support Clinton, while men lean toward Trump. Younger Pennsylvania residents who took part in the poll tend to support Clinton.

Despite the close results, most Pennsylvania voters who participated in the poll said they expect Clinton to win.

The poll contrasts with other recent polls, several of which gave both Clinton and McGinty considerable bumps following the Democratic National Convention in July.

Each Emerson poll sample consisted of 800 likely general election voters and had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points. According to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, the Emerson College poll receives a B polling grade and has a Republican bias.

Visit the Emerson College Polling Society’s website for the full methodology.

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