The Phillies Are One of Baseball’s Best Teams — But for How Long?

The Phillies have been outscored by 28 runs this year — but they may just have baseball's best bullpen. The combination has been good for the sixth-most wins in the majors. They can’t possibly keep winning, can they?

Andres Blanco reacts in the dugout after scoring during the third inning of a May 18th game against the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park.

Andres Blanco reacts in the dugout after scoring during the third inning of a May 18th game against the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park.

The Phillies beat the Marlins, 4-2, on Wednesday night. It was the Phils’ fourth straight series win and improved their record to 24-17. If the season ended now — a popular refrain in stories about the surprising Phillies currently — they would be in the playoffs as the first Wild Card. They are 1.5 games ahead.

And, yet, they’ve been outscored this year. Though tied for sixth in baseball in wins, the Phillies are just 23rd in run differential. The Phillies’ opponents have outscored them by 28 runs this season. 

A Baseball Prospectus article two years ago found that “around the 40-game mark — mid-May — run differential starts to be a good predictor of what things will look like at the end of the year.” Meaning: This is not some early-season fluke. The Phillies are probably a team that’s going to be outscored this year.

That’s not usually a good sign. Run differential has been shown to be a better predictor than record at how a team will perform in the future. Sure, it can be thrown off by some blowouts, and the Phillies have lost by 5 or more runs six times. They have been outscored 54-12 in those games (a negative-42 run differential). Three of those losses came in a five-game stretch against the Nationals and Mets where they were outscored 35-8 and went 1-4 (their one win in that stretch was an extra-inning walk-off against former closer Jonathan Papelbon).

That skews it. But so does this: The Phillies are a hilariously good 14-3 in 1-run games — the only team with more than nine one-run wins. They’re 4-0 in extra innings. Based on their run differential, you’d expect the Phillies to be 17-24, not 24-17.

The Phillies have one everyday hitter, Odubel Herrera, who is hitting above league-average. Carlos Ruiz, who is likely in his last year with the team and has played just 18 games, is also having a good season. Other than flashes from Maikel Franco, the Phillies’ offense hasn’t done much.

But the pitching has been spectacular. Aaron Nola, who has pitched the most innings at 53, has a 2.89 ERA. Vincent Velasquez, who came over in the Ken Giles trade in the offseason, has pitched just five fewer innings than Nola and has a 2.42 ERA. Offseason signing Jeremy Hellickson has been OK (3.99 ERA), and Jerad Eickhoff is hanging in there with a 4.44 ERA. The bullpen has been great, too: Jeanmar Gomez has blown just one save, Hector Neris has pitched 25 innings with a 1.44 ERA and David Hernandez has a 2.66 ERA over 20 innings. By some advanced metrics, the Phillies have had baseball’s best bullpen (which would have been difficult predict after its comically disastrous first week).

So can they keep it up, despite little hitting? A team with a negative run differential hasn’t made the playoffs since 2007, when the Arizona Diamondbacks had the best record in the National League at 90-72. But there’s another recent team to look at: The 2012 Baltimore Orioles got off to a hot start, outperformed its run differential all season, and finally — late in the year — went over the top. They finished the season scoring just 7 more runs than their opponents, but won 93 games. Like the 2007 Diamondbacks, the Orioles lost in the division series — but, hey, a trip to the playoffs would be incredible for a Phillies team many people predicted to finish last or close to it.

It seems unlikely the Phillies will keep it up. The highest chance any playoff projection system gives them is just 13 percent. But imagine the scenario: They hang in it for a bit longer, add a bat or two midseason with a small trade or a mid-season callup, dominate the woeful Braves … maybe the Phillies could actually do this.

Well, probably not. But it’s only May, and it’s fun to hope.

Follow @dhm on Twitter.