NFL Picks Against The Spread 2016: Week 4 Games

Here are some suggestions when trying to beat the NFL odds.

Tony Romo and Jason Garrett. (USA Today Sports)

Tony Romo and Jason Garrett. (USA Today Sports)

Before Week 4 of the 2016 NFL season schedule kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for this week’s round of games. (Click here for our NFL Week 4 expert predictions.)

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. You can find all of today’s NFL betting lines and more at Bovada. My record so far this season is 21-22-1 after going 6-8 last week. Let’s get to the picks.


Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3): Could this be Gus Bradley’s last game with Jacksonville? The Jags are off to an 0-3 start and there’s a history of head coaches getting fired after losing in the London game. Neither of these teams are very inspiring but at least the Colts have Andrew Luck. It’s an easy call to take the points here on a neutral field. PICK: Colts +3

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at New York Jets: Seattle’s offense came to life last week against a bad 49ers defense. The Jets will be a tough opponent defensively but there are definitely concerns about New York’s offense. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw six interceptions last week. It doesn’t seem likely he’ll bounce back against the Seahawks’ tough defense. PICK: Seahawks -3

Detroit Lions (-3) at Chicago Bears: Football Outsiders ranks the Bears as the second worst team in the NFL. That seems about right. Chicago is the home team in this tilt but that hasn’t been an advantage for them. The Bears are 3-14 in their last 17 games at Soldier Field. The Lions’ offense will be able to outscore Brian Hoyer and company. PICK: Lions -3

Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins (-7.5): The Browns have a kicker (former Eagle Cody Parkey) who missed three kicks last week. They’re platooning rookie Cody Kessler and wide receiver convert Terrelle Pryor at quarterback. It’s very hard to pick them despite the fact they’re going up against a leaky Washington defense. Kirk Cousins had his best game of the season last week so perhaps he’ll build on that momentum this week. PICK: Washington -7.5

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-5): The Texans have the benefit of extra rest after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 3. They needed it after getting shut out against the Patriots. The Titans haven’t been *as* bad as some would have expected heading into this season, but they’re still not great. The feeling here is Houston will do enough to cover. PICK: Texans -5

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-7.5): It sounds like the Patriots will be rolling with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. Jimmy G was playing well prior to his shoulder injury but it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be now. The Bills are coming off a surprisingly convincing win over the Cardinals last week. I don’t think they’ll extend their winning streak to two games, but they just might be able to cover the spread. I really don’t love betting against Bill Belichick, but I’m going to do it anyway. PICK: Bills +7.5

Carolina Panthers (-3) at Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan and the Falcons’ offense has looked great the past two weeks. The problem is they’ve played some truly terrible defenses. Atlanta’s defense is really bad as well. They rank dead last in defensive DVOA through three games. The Panthers’ offense will rebound in this game. PICK: Panthers -3

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5): The Raiders’ offense has played well this year. Oakland’s defense struggled over the first two weeks before turning in a solid showing against an uninspiring Titans offense. The Ravens are easily the most unimpressive undefeated team in the league. Baltimore only beat the Jags last week by two points. All of their games have been close this year. I like the points here. PICK: Raiders +3.5

Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneerss: Through three games, the Bucs’ defense has allowed the most points in the league. Trevor Siemian has been better than expected. He threw four touchdowns for the Broncos last week. Taking the reigning Super Bowl champs to win and cover here is an easy call. PICK: Broncos -3.5

New Orleans Saints at San Diego Chargers (-4): The Saints are playing on short rest on the road. Their defense is dreadful. The only thing that makes this a little difficult is that the Chargers have recently lost a number of key players for the season (Keenan Allen, Danny Woodhead, and Manti Te’o). Still, San Diego should be able to get the job done at home. PICK: Chargers -4

Dallas Cowboys -3 at San Francisco 49ers: The Cowboys are OK. Their defense is flawed, but they’re 2-1 and their only loss came by one point. Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott is playing well. The Cowboys might be without Dez Bryant, so that will hurt. But they should still be able to beat Blaine Gabbert, who is arguably the least inspiring starting quarterback in the NFL. PICK: Cowboys -3

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-8): Who would have thought the Rams would have a better record than the Cardinals heading into this game? Despite that fact, the Cardinals are still heavy favorites. Arizona typically plays well at home so they should bounce back after a bad loss in Buffalo last Sunday. This isn’t an easy pick because the Rams aren’t predictable. Jeff Fisher’s team will get blown out one week before upsetting a good team the next. I don’t think Los Angeles will pull off a three game winning streak here. The question is whether the the Cardinals will cover. I’ll say they do. PICK: Cardinals -8

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5): Pittsburgh will be looking to bounce back at home after getting embarrassed in Philadelphia last week. The good news for the Steelers is they’re getting Le’Veon Bell back. Reinforcements might also be on the way for Kansas City. Jamaal Charles reportedly has a chance to suit up this week. This game has the makings of a close one. The Steelers might win but I’ll take Andy Reid’s team to cover. PICK: Chiefs +5.5

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings -4.5: The Vikings’ offense hasn’t been impressive, but their defense looks fantastic. Minnesota should be able to shut down the Giants’ offense. Sam Bradford will do just enough to lead the Vikings to a perfect 4-0 start to the 2016 season. Just like everyone thought. PICK: Vikings -4.5