Quinnipiac Poll: John Kasich the Only Republican Who Could Win Pennsylvania

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton (iStockphoto.com). John Kasich (center, via Facebook)

A new poll from Quinnipiac University finds Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump leading their respective Pennsylvania primaries — but it’s John Kasich who beats all comers in a hypothetical general election in the state.

The poll, released today, surveys likely voters in the Pennsylvania Democratic and Republican primaries. Pennsylvanians vote on April 26th.

The GOP primary poll finds Trump with 39 percent of the vote, Ted Cruz with 30 and John Kasich with 24. That leaves 7 percent undecided, with 27 percent saying they might change their vote before election day. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders, 50-44. Six percent are undecided and 22 percent say they might change their minds before the election.

These are smaller gaps between the frontrunners and their challengers than previous polls have found. Real Clear Politics has Trump up by 13.4 percentage points on average in the Republican primary, with Clinton up by 17.7 percent in the Democratic primary.

As Quinnipiac calls out in its release on the poll, John Kasich wins both his hypothetical general election matchups. He beats Clinton 51-35 and Sanders 46-40. Clinton ties with Cruz at 43 percent, but otherwise Democrats have the edge: Clinton beats Trump 45-42. Sanders beats Trump 48-40 and Cruz 46-38. (Yes, Cruz does better than Trump against Clinton but worse against Sanders.)

“Can you be mired in third place among Pennsylvania Republicans and still be your party’s best bet come Election Day?” Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said in a release. “Welcome to Gov. John Kasich’s world, where the big prize is tantalizingly close, but blocked by two candidates with the same goal.”

It doesn’t seem that close; those general election scenarios are a longshot. He mathematically cannot get the number of delegates he needs in the remaining primaries, and would have to win on a second (or later) ballot at the Republican National Convention. Currently, Trump leads with 749 delegates. Cruz has 455 and Kasich has 144 — which is even fewer delegates than Marco Rubio‘s 173. Rubio dropped out of the race after the March 15th primaries.

Meanwhile, a new primary poll from conservative polling firm Harper, Joe Sestak leads with 41 percent of the vote in the Democratic senate primary. Katie McGinty is second with 31 percent, while John Fetterman is at 9. Nineteen percent of voters are undecided. On the Republican side, Sen. Pat Toomey is unopposed in his primary.

Harper’s poll of the attorney general Democratic primary has Josh Shapiro in front with 33 percent of the vote. Stephen Zappala follows with 17 percent and John Morganelli is just behind with 16 percent. Thirty-four percent of voters are undecided.

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