Trump, Clinton Lead in New Pennsylvania Poll — But Trump’s Rivals Are Gaining Ground

Trump's lead has shrunk to just three points over John Kasich. Ted Cruz is not so far behind, either.

Franklin and Marshall poll - Trump and Clinton

The results from the latest Franklin & Marshall poll of registered voters.

A new poll from Franklin & Marshall has Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump out in front in Pennsylvania — but Trump’s rivals are gaining ground.

Clinton has led throughout F&M’s polling; she’s ahead of Bernie Sanders among registered Democrats in the state by a 53 percent to 28 percent margin. In October, that margin was 52-18. Though Bernie has gained, he’s picked up supporters of other candidates and undecideds. Clinton’s lead seems secure; FiveThirtyEight gives her a 97 percent chance of winning the state’s primary.

Things are more interesting on the Republican side.  Trump leads the field with 33 percent of the vote. But John Kasich is not far behind with 30 percent, while Ted Cruz has 20 percent. Seventeen percent of voters still don’t know.

This is quite the change from October, when Trump had 23 percent but Kasich had 6 percent and Cruz just 4. The race is fluid; FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 48 percent chance of victory in the state.

Although Clinton is way ahead among Dems, both candidates are liked by Democrats: Sanders has a 64-22 favorable-unfavorable split, while Clinton’s is 67-25. Things are more split on the GOP side: Trump has a 46-41 favorable-unfavorable rating, while Cruz’s is 48-32.

Meanwhile, in the Democratic Senate primary, Joe Sestak has jumped since the previous poll. F&M puts him at 31 percent of the vote, with Katie McGinty at 14 percent and John Fetterman at 7. Forty-six percent of Democratic voters still don’t know which candidate they support, so there’s lots of room for any candidate.

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