NFL Picks Against The Spread 2016: Week 16 Games

Here are some suggestions when trying to beat the NFL odds.

Sam Bradford. (USA Today Sports)

Sam Bradford. (USA Today Sports)

Before Week 16 of the 2016 NFL season schedule kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for this week’s round of games. (Click here for our NFL Week 16 straight up predictions.)

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. You can find all of today’s NFL betting lines and more via Bovada. My record so far this season is 99-90-14 after going 5-8-1 last week. Let’s get to the picks.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-7): The Vikings are still mathematically alive, but they sure look done. Minnesota got badly beaten down by the Colts — the Colts! — last week. It doesn’t look like Adrian Peterson will play this week after he struggled in his return last Sunday. Minnesota just isn’t good enough to get a win in Lambeau. The Packers are hot and Aaron Rodgers will be looking to get revenge for Green Bay’s loss in Minnesota earlier this year. Eagles fan will be rooting for a Sam Bradford loss on Saturday. PICK: Packers -7

Tennessee Titans (-5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Titans look like the best team in the AFC South. They have some real quality wins lately, including a victory over the Chiefs in Kansas City. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are easy the worst team in their division. Jacksonville fired Gus Bradley so now Doug Marrone is in charge. The change probably won’t help the Jags much. They’re still really bad and the Titans are clearly better. PICK: Titans -5.5

Washington Redskins (-3) at Chicago Bears: Kirk Cousins is 1-10 against teams with nine wins or more. So maybe he’ll actually have a chance to beat the Bears this week. Then again, Cousins up really small against the 5-8 Panthers in an important game at home. The Bears have also shown good fight lately despite not winning. The feeling here is Matt Barkley and company might actually be able to pull off the upset. I like the points here. PICK: Bears +3

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-4.5): Not having Ryan Tannehill didn’t prevent the Dolphins from blowing out the Jets. The Bills will obviously be a tougher challenge for Miami, but I don’t think there’s good reason for Buffalo to be so heavily favored. Rex Ryan is on his way out so it’s possible his team just checks out here at some point. And even if the Bills win, this could be a close game. So the points are the tempting take. Matt Moore is solid enough to give the Dolphins a chance as they try to hold on to their playoff positioning. PICK: Dolphins +4.5

Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Carolina Panthers: Atlanta’s offense is ridiculously good. The Falcons can score at will. Carolina could give Atlanta some trouble since the Panthers have played better recently. But why would anyone want to bet against the Falcons’ scoring capabilities? The Falcons aren’t a lock, but it’s hard not to lean in their direction. PICK: Falcons -3

San Diego Chargers (-4.5) at Cleveland Browns: I’ve unwisely been picking the Browns to cover the spread over the last few weeks. Now watch them finally get a win this week since I’m not picking them. Cleveland doesn’t have any business winning this matchup, or any matchup really, but the Chargers have been prone to blowing games. But the Browns are just so bad that it’s hard to have any faith in them. PICK: Chargers -4.5

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-17): Wow, what a line. Seventeen points is a lot, especially for a division game. The Patriots haven’t beaten the Jets by 17 points or more since Mark Sanchez’s butt fumble game in 2012. It’s really hard to bet against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick when they’re at home, though. And the Jets have lost five games this season by 17 or more, so the Patriots covering the spread is hardly an impossible task. Three of those blowout losses took place on the road. Another one could be coming soon. PICK: Patriots -17

Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders (-4): It’s hard to place the Colts. Some weeks they look pretty bad. Other weeks they have dominant wins over teams on the road. Indy is still trying to play for the AFC South lead so they’ll be desperate to win this one. The Raiders are also fighting for their playoff positioning. Oakland gets the edge here since they’re at home. The four point spread instead of the usual three causes a little bit of hesitation, but I’ll ultimately take Oakland. PICK: Raiders -4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3): Drew Brees threw zero touchdowns to six interceptions in the two games prior to Week 15. He bounced back by throwing four touchdowns to zero interceptions against the Cardinals. Tampa Bay is currently the seventh seed in the NFC playoff picture. They’ll want to fight their way into the playoffs. The Superdome is a tough place to play but the Buccaneers have been road warriors this year. They’re 5-2 in away games. This one could be close, so the Bucs get the edge even if they don’t win. PICK: Buccaneers +3

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-8): You can’t bet against the Seahawks at home. They might struggle on the road, but they’re still very dominant when playing in Seattle. The Cardinals aren’t very inspiring. Bruce Arians’ team has struggled this season after making it to the NFC Championship Game and getting killed by the Panthers. PICK: Seahawks -8

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-5): Chip Kelly’s 49ers have lost 13 games in a row. Are they finally due for a win? Eh, probably not. Even Jared Goff can have success against this terrible San Francisco defense. But asking the Rams to cover five points is a lot. Take a look at Los Angeles’ margins of victory this year: six, five, four, and three. The 49ers beat the Rams earlier this year, so maybe Chip can find a way to pull it off again. Or at least cover in a close game. PICK: 49ers +5

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-1): If Brock Osweiler was starting for the Texans, it would be more tempting to take the Bengals here. But Tom Savage is now the starter for Houston, and he’s the truth! OK, probably not. But it seems possible he might be not as worse as Osweiler, which could be enough of an upgrade for the Texans to mean something. Houston’s defense is helped by the fact the Bengals will be without A.J. Green in this one. The Texans are still playing to retain their division lead. PICK: Texans -1

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6): The Ravens beat the Steelers earlier this season when Ben Roethlisberger was banged up. Big Ben is healthy now and Pittsburgh’s offense is running liked a well-oiled machine. If Ryan Mathews was able to run through Baltimore’s top-ranked rush defense last week, imagine what Le’Veon Bell might be able to do. The Steelers will win this game. PICK: Steelers -6

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-3): The Broncos are 1-3 in their last four games, with the one victory coming over a bad Jaguars team. Denver could easily be 1-5 in their last six if not for a controversial blocked kick when they played the Saints. In any case, the Broncos aren’t trending in the right direction right now. Kansas City should be able to take care of business at home. Denver should be kicking themselves for not investing in better quarterback options last offseason. PICK: Chiefs -3

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7): Dallas reportedly plans to play their starters despite having clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC. While that might be true, it doesn’t necessarily guarantee the starters will play the whole game. While the Cowboys don’t have anything to play for, the Lions do. Detroit will be desperate to hold on to their NFC North lead. Matthew Stafford’s injury is concerning but not to the point where it should prevent anyone from taking the points. PICK: Lions +7