NFL Picks Against The Spread 2016: Week 10 Games

Here are some suggestions when trying to beat the NFL odds.

Photo by: Jeff Fusco

Photo by: Jeff Fusco

Before Week 10 of the 2016 NFL season schedule kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for this week’s round of games. (Click here for our NFL Week 10 straight up predictions.)

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. You can find all of today’s NFL betting lines and more at Bovada. My record so far this season is 59-53-9 after going 5-4-2 last week. Let’s get to the picks.


Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints (-3): The Saints are scoring an average of 35.5 points per game at home this season. The Broncos, meanwhile, are averaging 22.3 points per game on the road. New Orleans’ defense is always a concern but it’s hard not to like the Saints at home. The Broncos’ defense struggled on the road against Oakland’s prolific offense last Sunday. The same thing could happen this week. PICK: Saints -3

Atlanta Falcons (-2) at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles are one of the best home teams in football this season. Philadelphia leads the NFL in point differential per game, points allowed per game, touchdowns allowed per game, sacks per game, and forced fumbles per game. The Eagles have outscored their opponents 84 to 23 in three games at Lincoln Financial Field. Still, there’s concern that the Falcons’ top-ranked offense could have a big game against Philadelphia’s defense. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones will be looking to capitalize on the Eagles’ weakness at cornerback. Then again, Atlanta’s defense is vulnerable as well. Even though I have the Falcons winning this game straight up I’m tempted to take the points because I think there’s upset potential here. PICK: Eagles +2

Chicago Bears (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chicago is 0-6 on the road this year. The Bears are 0-4 at home. Something’s got to give. Neither of these teams are very good, which makes me want to lean with the home team since they’re getting points. It’s hard to trust Chicago to cover on the road. PICK: Buccaneers +2.5

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (-2): The Minnesota Vikings have been exposed in recent weeks after getting off to a 5-0 start. Their offensive line simply isn’t good enough to protect Sam Bradford. Bradford isn’t good enough to compensate for poor blocking or a lacking running game. Washington is coming off their bye and they’ll take care of Minnesota at home. Look for Ryan Kerrigan and company to have a big day against the Vikings’ backup offensive tackles. PICK: Washington -2

Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers (-3): OK, so maybe the 3-5 Panthers are turning things around after getting off to a poor 1-5 start. But entering a game as standard favorites over the 6-2 Chiefs? Maybe the odds-makers know something here, but I’m inclined to think Kansas City isn’t getting enough respect. The Chiefs are a much better team than the Panthers on paper. Trust in Andy Reid’s team to get the job done. PICK: Chiefs +3

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2): The Texans haven’t won a road game this season (0-3). In fairness, they’ve had some really tough away matchups: the Patriots, the Vikings, and the Broncos. The Jaguars are not a tough away matchup. Jacksonville is just a very bad team. Gus Bradley isn’t a good coach and Blake Bortles doesn’t put up good numbers unless it’s garbage time. Houston isn’t as good as their record appears but they should be able to take care of a Jaguars team that doesn’t deserve to be favored at all. PICK: Texans +2

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Tennessee Titans: The Packers are 8-10 in their last 18 games. They’re far from being a dominant team. It wouldn’t shock me if the Titans won at home, but I have a hard time seeing Aaron Rodgers dropping three games in a row. Green Bay finds a way to win on the road. PICK: Packers -3

Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets (-2): Ugh. This could be a real ugly game. Case Keenum versus Ryan Fitzpatrick is a battle of two quarterbacks who shouldn’t be starting in the NFL. Los Angeles has a better defense than New York does, and they’re getting the points, so I’ll take the Rams here. But my advice would be to stay away from this unwatchable game. PICK: Rams +2

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-4.5): The Dolphins have played well in recent weeks. Miami is on a three-game win streak. Those three wins have come at home. Now the Dolphins will be playing on the road, where they’re 1-3. The feeling here is the Chargers’ offense will be able to lead them to victory. San Diego is second in points scored this year. The Fish aren’t good enough to rattle off four wins in a row. PICK: Chargers -4.5

San Francisco 49es at Arizona Cardinals (-13.5): Bruce Arians’ squad should be well-rested coming off their bye. Chip Kelly’s 49ers have looked really bad since getting a win in Week 1. They’re probably not bound to turn things around in a road game in Arizona. Arians loves getting the best of Kelly. PICK: Cardinals -13.5

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5): It’s tempting to take the Cowboys since Dallas is only a one-point loss away from being 8-0. But then you remember the Cowboys haven’t really beaten a good team this year. Pittsburgh is going to be desperate for a win after dropping three straight. Ben Roethlisberger is another week removed from his injury so maybe he’ll look healthier this week. PICK: Steelers -1.5

Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots (-8): The Seahawks have benefited from since favorable officiating in home games this season. They likely won’t get that kind of home cooking in a road game against the Patriots. Tom Brady has been on an absolute tear since returning from suspension. Seattle is going to get their butt kicked on Sunday night. Keep in mind this has been a short week for the Seahawks. PICK: Patriots -8

Cincinnati Bengals (-1) at New York Giants: This is a weird line. The Bengals haven’t looked good enough to warrant being favored. Cincy is 1-3 in road games this season with the one win coming in a one-point victory over the lowly Jets. The feeling here is the Bengals’ return to MetLife Stadium this season won’t result in a win. The Giants aren’t very good either, but I don’t know why I’d trust in the Bengals right now. PICK: Giants +1