Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, the website that correctly predicted Barack Obama’s wins in 2008 and 2012, has released its 2016 Senate forecasts, and all three of the site’s models currently have Katie McGinty favored to beat Pat Toomey. Read more »
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton secured an 11-point lead over Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to a new Franklin and Marshall College poll.
The Franklin and Marshall poll, which was conducted after the Democratic National Convention, shows Clinton received 49 percent of support among the state’s poll participants, while Trump received 38 percent.
Pennsylvanians want Philadelphia to leave the state.
Not all of them, of course. But according to a new poll from conservative firm Harper Polling, among those who could decide, a plurality of Pennsylvanians selected the five-county Philadelphia region as the one they’d like to leave the commonwealth. A Philexit!
Harper asked 500 adults in the state earlier this month the following question: “As you may have heard, the United Kingdom recently voted to leave the European Union, an event that has been referred to in the media as Brexit, or the British Exit. Which region of Pennsylvania would you most like to see leave the Commonwealth in its own Brexit?”
Fifty-two percent weren’t sure. But 29 percent of Pennsylvanians say Philadelphia and Southeastern Pennsylvania should leave. No other region was close. Pittsburgh and the Southwest got 7 percent. Scranton/Lehigh Valley, South Central PA and the Northern PA all got four percent. Aw, well at least everyone was nice to York. Read more »
A new poll from Monmouth University has Hillary Clinton out in front in the presidential race.
Clinton leads Donald Trump nationally, 47 percent to 40 percent, according to the poll. When Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green candidate Jill Stein are included, Clinton’s lead is 42 percent to 36 percent.
The national preference poll with the other candidates could be a little misleading, as neither party may be on the ballot in all 50 states. The Libertarian Party, however, currently only has ballot access in 33 states, though it says it is working on all 50 states plus DC. The Green Party believes it can get on the ballot in 47 states.
Still, Clinton leads by a wide total in both polls. Read more »
Don’t want to vote for presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump this November, but not quite ready to push the button for Hillary Clinton? You could always vote for the Phillie Phanatic.
Public Policy Polling, a liberal-leaning polling firm that was judged the most accurate in 2012, recently polled Pennsylvania voters. And PPP found that citizens of the Keystone State find the Phillie Phanatic to be more qualified to be president than Donald Trump.
It wasn’t all that close, either: Forty-six percent of Pennsylvania voters surveyed said the Phillie Phanatic was more qualified to be president than Trump, with 40 percent saying they felt Trump was more qualified than the giant, green fuzzy mascot who doesn’t talk. Fourteen percent said they weren’t sure. Weren’t sure. Read more »
Sen. Pat Toomey gets 45 percent of the vote in the new poll, while Katie McGinty gets 44 percent. Much like the poll Quinnipiac took of Trump/Clinton, men back the Republican candidate (53–36 percent), while women say they’re going to vote for McGinty (51-38). The pollsters interviewed 1,077 Pennsylvania voters and say the poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. Read more »
A new poll released by Quinnipiac University shows Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in a dead heat in Pennsylvania.
Clinton leads the poll of 1,077 self-identified registered voters, 43 percent to 42 percent, with 2 percent saying someone else, 7 percent saying they wouldn’t vote and 5 percent undecided. The poll has a margin of sampling error of +/- 3 percentage points.
All of Trump’s rivals for the Republican nomination have dropped out of the race; he is the presumptive Republican nominee. Bernie Sanders, who held a rally in Atlantic City yesterday, has vowed to stay in until the end of the Democratic presidential primaries. But Clinton is way out in front and will most likely win her party’s nomination. Clinton vs. Trump is the most likely general election matchup. Read more »