Breaking Down the Sixers Odds in Tonight’s Lottery

The Sixers selected Jahlil Okafor third overall in the 2015 NBA draft | Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Tonight is a huge night in the course of the 76ers franchise, for obvious reasons. The difference between having Brandon Ingram or Jamal Murray as a building block going forward is monumental. It’s the difference between, finally, having a small amount of certainty in the Sixers’ universe, or heading into another offseason filled with unknowns.

How likely are these various outcomes? How remote is the possibility of the worst case scenario? Here’s a quick rundown of the mathematical probabilities for each of the 11 possible outcomes.

First a table listing all 11 possible outcomes between the Sixers and Lakers pick, sorted by most-to-least likely.

That’s…pretty scary. Yes, the most likely statistical outcome is that the Sixers get the 4th pick and the Lakers pick doesn’t convey. On a related note, this is why tanking, if the goal is to build a true contender at virtually any cost, isn’t guaranteed to be a one year ordeal.

The good news is, the second and third most likely outcomes both contain the #1 overall pick. That being said, after the most likely outcome (#4 and no Lakers pick), everything else is kind of bunched up.

Or, in graph form.

Next we’ll break this down into logical groups, such as “the probability of getting the top-2 pick and having the Lakers pick convey”.

That’s slightly more re-assuring, although it pretty effectively shows how getting a top-2 pick is pretty much a coin flip, and that’s really the outcome that will determine whether tonight was a good or bad one for the Sixers and their fans.

And, just as a reminder, the probability of what could happen with just the Sixers pick, irrespective of what happens with the Lakers pick:

Still, with so much uncertainty in the air, tonight is sure to be filled with drama for Sixers faithful.

Derek Bodner covers the 76ers for Philadelphia magazine. Follow @DerekBodnerNBA on Twitter.