Forecasters Eye “Tropical Disturbance” off East Coast

Feds say this shouldn’t be a bad hurricane year in the Atlantic, however.

Credit: NOAA

Credit: NOAA

Newsworks reports on an ominous weather development:

A tropical disturbance off northern Florida may form into a tropical depression early this week, potentially impacting the New Jersey area around July 4, forecasters say.

There is a 60 percent chance of tropical depression formation through 48 hours, according to an outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center Sunday afternoon. Within five days, the chance increases to 80 percent.

In other words, we could be calling it Wawa Welcome Heavy Rains!




But if it's any consolation, NOAA says this probably won't be a bad hurricane year in the Atlantic:

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.  For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1st, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010.

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