Cecily Tynan Strikes First In Philadelphia Long Range Winter Forecast Wars

But she’s still not wearing long sleeves.

cecily-tynan-photo

POLL UPDATE: Cecily Tynan has been defeated by former FOX 29 personality Rob Guarino in our poll, but Guarino’s agent doesn’t want you to know that.

Original:


On Thursday night, 6 ABC meteorologist Cecily Tynan unleashed her long range winter forecast for Philadelphia, continuing the ridiculous November tradition of TV weather people giving us their best guesses for how much snow we'll be getting in February.

In case you don't feel like watching the whole thing, there wasn't exactly anything earth-shattering to tell. Though there were some end-of-the-world style special effects and chatter about a "sudden stratospheric warming" and "a possible Arctic outbreak," basically the Philadelphia long range winter forecast boils down to: a) yes, it is going to snow and b) it is probably not going to snow that much.

Tynan predicts "a very changeable pattern" and "numerous mixed precipitation events," which sound a whole lot like weather business as usual in Philadelphia. As for specific snowfall amounts, here's what she says to expect:

Philadelphia area: 12 to 18 inches
Lehigh Valley: 22 to 28 inches
Jersey Shore: 6 to 12 inches

As Tynan notes, those amounts are below average but a lot more than what we saw here over the last two winters, which Tynan describes as "virtual snow droughts."

But does Tynan know what she's talking about? Do any of Philadelphia's meteorologists? Take the poll below.


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  • SS

    I interned with Glenn Schwartz (as well as Doug Kammerer, Amy Freeze, and Dave Warren, all of whom are no longer in Philadelphia) while studying meteorology at Penn State. To me Glenn is undoubtedly the “dean” of meteorologists in Philadelphia, he has by far the most experience and knowledge of the science and I’d definitely take his forecasts over anyone else’s. As far as other trustworthy meteorologists, I’d generally side with meteorologists who have an actual meteorology degree over those with a degree in journalism. From my research that list includes: Glenn Schwartz (NBC), Sheena Parveen (NBC), Caitlin Roth (FOX), Scott Williams (FOX), Adam Joseph (ABC), Chris Sowers (ABC), Justin Drabick (CBS), and possibly Carol Erickson (CBS, her profile says she has a “bachelors of science” but doesn’t specify that it’s for meteorology, though I’d assume it is). John Bolaris is also a degreed meteorologist, I met him when I was in high school and he was still at NBC, he couldn’t have been nicer or more approachable and is a knowledgeable fellow, if maybe a bit quirky. I hate seeing what has happened to him lately and hope he’s able to turn himself around, but I don’t think his social media habits are helping his cause. I know Caitlin Roth personally from school and would definitely trust her forecasts because I can personally attest to the rigorous classwork that one has to endure to earn a degree in meteorology from Penn State (she also happens to be a very nice gal).

    With regards to seasonal forecasts, I understand the temptation to do them, but in the end it’s not much more than somewhat-educated guesswork. You can make a somewhat-reasonable seasonal temperature forecast in a decent El Nino or La Nina pattern, but unfortunately this year we’re in a neutral state. Other factors that influence the weather patterns in the winter– “blocking” in the North Atlantic ocean, jet stream patterns in the North Pacific ocean, and the aforementioned “sudden stratospheric warming” which is a buzzword that meteorologists love to put out there without actually understanding what it means–are not predictable this far out. And while temperature prediction is very difficult, snowfall prediction in this lead time is virtually impossible.

    • cs

      what a sexist remark- “Men only watch Cecily because she is attractive..”- that’s a cheap shot and is very condescending. She doesn’t over-hype the forecast as most other stations do. Journalism gives an edge in communicating the information, and she also has advanced meteorology education. She’s got my vote, fair and square.

      • lovespoundcake

        I’m a woman and I love Cecily! She never dresses provocatively, and always looks professional.

        BTW, she is wearing short sleeves, because it is extremely hot under the lights in the studio!

        • Jane Yavis

          I’m with you – Ihae always liked Cicily and think she does a great job. AND I love poindcake, too.

      • SS

        I’m confused, when did I say that?

      • jjem

        What are you talking about? SS didn’t say anything like that, as a matter of fact, he didn’t even mention her name.. Actually maybe that’s it, he didn’t mention her on his list of people that are actually meteorologists, you do know that news organizations hire “attractive” people to do the weather segment and then have actual meteorologists write the forecast/brief them prior to going on air. I’m not saying that she’s not a meteorologist, but I am saying that he didn’t mention her as one after researching all of the real mets in Philly and not only that, after not bringing up her name at all, you wrote a comment that implied that he/she wrote something that they didn’t. It’s like if I said in replying to you, “what a sexist remark- women only watch Joe Bastardi for his baby face.”

    • jjem

      John Bolaris being a nice guy does not discount the fact that he should not be on this list. This list is a vote for “Philly’s most reliable meteorologist, which meteorologist do you trust the most”……he has not worked as a meteorologist is years and doesn’t even live in PA anymore, therefore you can’t “trust” him because he doesn’t forecast. If people want to argue that he puts out an occasional 140 character “forecast” on twitter then one must also consider that first, most of them are NY current conditions and two, if you argue someone forecasting on twitter is a working meteorologist, then all of the 12 year olds that “forecast” on twitter are too. Bolaris may be a nice guy according to you, but the fact is that he is taking votes away from much better meteorologists. (I know he was in Philly a long time, but Willy Mays wasn’t up for MVP three years after he retired).

      • SS

        Yeah I agree, I wasn’t arguing that Bolaris is one of the more reliable meteorologists in the city and I agree that he probably shouldn’t be on the list, he’s more of a “Twitter celebrity” than a meteorologist at this point.

        • jjem

          Exactly.

    • jjem

      As far as sudden stratospheric warming’s, the fact that many do not understand how they work is a problem, and I agree with you on that…..one, they might not downwell from ~30mb to cool the surface and two, they might cool the surface but the pattern may cause all of the cold air to go to Eurasia/other places, meaning not here, (I know that you understand this…..this is for the sake of others here that do not). As far as seasonal forecasts being “somewhat-educated guesswork,” if you are a skilled forecaster, it is nowhere near that, for instance…I have forecasted DJF snow totals for PHL/the other 4 counties within the 5 county area/SW New Jersey/Northern Delaware and Eastern MD within a 7″ variance for the past several years, (I know 11/12 was easy, as was last year, [the backloaded potential was painfully obvious], but beating climo, if you have the skill-set is very doable). And as far as other factors, ENSO is a big one of course, but the fact that we are in a neutral ENSO means that looking back to the past several years is vital in knowing how this neutral ENSO will act in comparison to others. Also, when the ENSO is neutral, the biggest drivers of Winter weather in our area are, in order…the EPO…the PDO, (some would argue that the EPO and PDO are tied in importance, I believe that as the PDO moves closer toward neutral, as it has recently, that the EPO is far more important)…the NAO, (which can overpower a bad PDO for a short time if it is strongly negative)…the AO…the SST’s off of our East coast, though them being anomalously warm hurts the coastal residents in terms of snow/sleet but allows for baroclinic intensification of coastal storms and this forcing makes for more powerful coastals then we’d normally see…the Polar Vortex, which in certain and in fact many situations should be near the top of this list, e.g. if it is perturbed and or in Canada rather then the other side of the globe etc.,…and many other telleconnections-(the SAI/MEI/SOI/Kelvin waves/Rossby waves/and on and on. The fact is, that a skilled forecaster can write up a seasonal forecast with skill more often than not, without any guesswork.

      • SS

        That’s fair, I’m not sure how predictable EPO (and certainly AO/NAO) is more than a couple weeks in advance, I do agree PDO is an important driver that can be predicted further in advance though

        • jjem

          The NAO and AO can be predicted with skill by the ECMWF a few weeks in advance, but no more. There are however, other factors that can make it possible to determine the likelihood of those indexes going one way or the other. The EPO is also something that is transient most of the time, but can be predicted by other things, e.g., recurving typhoons.

  • Myrtle

    You know the females dress ‘down’ so to speak just to get males to watch them. So voting for your favorite is like asking men…which breasts or skin tight clothing did you like the most?
    Everyone know Glenn Schwartz is the most accurate!

    • imcharlie1

      But he has no breasts!

  • TheWeatherSpace.Com

    Me actually, gotta pick me you guys. Put Kevin Martin …

  • ChrisM

    1. Elliot Abrahms (KYW 1060)
    2. Glen Schwartz
    3. Cecily Tynan

  • Rodge

    Cecily is a talking head for Accuweather. If they’re right. She’s right.
    Glen, by far, is the best in Philly..
    Kevin, you don’t know squat.

    • jjem

      “Cecily is a talking head for Accuweather. If they’re right. She’s right.” Very true, BUT….Glen is a talking head for the ECMWF, if it’s right, he’s right haha Honestly though, he is good, but in my opinion Rob G. is better and his site is very accurate and goes in depth for our area and the whole nation, (even Europe), seasonal, everything, so as far as the most accurate, all of his awards don’t lie, so he is my choice.

  • Ceci

    Thank you for mentioning “sleeveless” even in winter. It’s quite a distraction, but then I’m female. So, when are the men going to shed their ties, jackets and shirts? Or does a professional manner of dress only apply to non-females?

    • Barb

      If I had arms like Cecily Tynan, I’d be sleeveless all the time! live in Ohio right now and really miss the ANC 6 News people; especially the weather people.
      They have so much more personality. Too laid back out here.

      • Jane Yavis

        Me, too Barb!!!!

    • jjem

      “So, when are the men going to shed their ties, jackets and shirts?”
      “And shirts?” I didn’t know she was doing topless segments, haha.

      Besides, do you really have to wear long sleeves in order to be “dressed professionally?”

      • jjem

        I’m just curious as to why you copy/pasted my post. Was it for effect?

    • jjem

      “So, when are the men going to shed their ties, jackets and shirts?”
      “And shirts?” I didn’t know she was doing topless segments, haha.

      Besides, do you really have to wear long sleeves in order to be “dressed professionally?”

  • jjem

    A lot of people released Winter forecasts, putting one meteorologist on this page gives her an unfair advantage, it doesn’t matter though, enough people remember Rob Guarino winning the Enquirers most accurate snowfall forecast his last 3 consecutive years in Philly that he’ll garner the most votes because he actually is the most accurate forecaster.

    • Tom, Phillyweather.net

      The Inquirer didn’t run those. Phillyweather.net did. And Rob won once (the first year my site ran it).

      The other years were NBC 10, CBS 3, and the National Weather Service.

      • jjem

        OK, well I got some bad information then, but I’m still a fan of his…he did win National forecaster of the year like a few years before he went to New Mexico though didn’t he? And an AP award for accuracy and some New Mexico accuracy award. I mean between all of that and the emmys I still think he should at least be on the list, I mean Bolaris is on the list but Rob G. isn’t…wtf

      • SS

        For what it’s worth, unlike Guarino and Bolaris I haven’t seen you guys at Phillyweather.net lobby a desperate internet campaign for Philly Mag glory, but you guys should really be on this list as the best/most objective online source of Philadelphia-related weather.

        • jjem

          SS, for what it’s worth, if you were in position to possibly win this, would you have done all you could to win?
          The phillywx.net guys are good, no doubt, but compare the awards for accuracy, and Rob has them beat….is that fair?….is it unfair?….I don’t know, but he has a ton of accuracy awards among other accolades, and they don’t.
          Furthermore, what was so “desperate” about “vote for me”?

          • Tom, Phillyweather.net

            Thanks, SS.

            And jjem, it’s phillyweather.net (spelled out).

          • jjem

            haha Are you really that anal retentive about the spelling of your site? Apparently so.

          • Tom, Phillyweather.net

            well, considering it’s a domain address, yeah I will correct people when they don’t list it correctly.

            It isn’t anal retentive any more than it is simply correcting an error.

  • jjem

    “What’s not warming or cooling is the equatorial Pacific”….Wrong, she obviously has not seen the latest MEI. And her explanation of how a sudden stratospheric warming occurs was also jacked up, the colder air doesn’t move South like in the wake of an arctic cold front, it is caused by the stratosphere warming, then the downwelling causing the surface to cool and it sometimes backfires if you want cold, often times going to the other side of the globe causing a strong Southeast ridge and actually giving us warmer than normal temperatures…I know she’s trying to dumb it down for viewers that don’t understand meteorology, but there’s a difference between dumbing it down and just plain dumb…and people are actually voting for her? Not to mention it is a dead on parrot of the accuweather forecast, but that’s no surprise given her station.

  • Miz Val

    This information is good to know no matter who brings it with or without sleeves. So glad I am no longer required to venture out in that white stuff if I do not have to. However I am stocking up on food items just in case .other people can’t make it to their jobs.