Nate Silver Picks “Argo” for Best Picture

Using the results of previous awards handed out this year, Nate Silver has forecasted this year’s Oscars. In the last two times he did this (predicting only the six major categories), he notched a 75% success rate. Especially because voters from earlier award shows (Screen Actor’s Guild, for example) also vote in the Oscars, this method ends up mimicking the polling averages he compiled during the election. Without further ado, Nate’s picks:

Best Picture: Argo

Best Director: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miz

How long until POLITICO casts doubt on Silver’s methodology, arguing that Lincoln will win Best Picture because it is popular with voters on both sides of the aisle, and because looking at data is no way to forecast public opinion? For a prediction of all Oscar categories, using both quantitative and qualitative methodology, check out Aaron Mettey’s scoresheet. For the record, his predictions were published first, and they’re identical to Silver’s. [New York Times]