New Data Says Pennsylvania Might Be GOP’s Best Hope in 2016

On the eve of the presidential election, Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan used a large rally in Bucks County, among other political ephemera, as evidence that Romney would win. “All the vibrations are right,” she wrote. Back in the reality-based world, however, they may be some substantial data to suggest that the GOP could actually experience some good Pennsylvania vibes in ’16.

Amy Walter, an analyst at the influential Cook Political Report, writes that if the GOP wants to win in ’16 it should ignore recent states that have flipped from red to blue, like Colorado and Nevada; they’re not coming back. Instead, it should focus on states that are trending red. Since 1988, only three blue states have become less blue. They are: Iowa, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. Of those three, Pennsylvania has the most electoral votes, with 20. While the Romney campaign declined to invest heavily in the pricey Philly media market in 2012, whoever’s running in ’16 might want to pony up.