NFL Picks Against The Spread 2016: Week 7 Games

Here are some suggestions when trying to beat the NFL odds.
Carson Wentz and Zach Ertz. (Jeff Fusco)

Carson Wentz and Zach Ertz. (Jeff Fusco)

Before Week 7 of the 2016 NFL season schedule kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for this week’s round of games. (Click here for our NFL Week 7 expert predictions.)

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. You can find all of today’s NFL betting lines and more at Bovada. My record so far this season is 42-38-5 after going 6-6-2 last week. Let’s get to the picks.

2016 NFL WEEK 7 PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD

New York Giants (-3) at Los Angeles Rams: The Eagles would have been playing in this game if they hadn’t beaten the G-Men in a meaningless Week 17 finale last season. Instead, it’ll be the Giants taking on the Rams in London. New York lives and dies by Odell Beckham Jr. The Los Angeles defense should relatively be able to keep him in check. The Giants aren’t good enough to be getting points in this situation even though it’s a neutral field. PICK: Rams +3

Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1): Gus Bradley’s team has won two in a row but the Jags barely squeaked by those bad teams. The Raiders are easily the better team on paper and they’re getting a point. It’s an easy call. PICK: Raiders +1

Buffalo Bills (-3) at Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins beat the Steelers last week but Miami was aided by Ben Roethlisberger’s in-game injury. Buffalo has been hot lately and they should be able to take care of a less than stellar Dolphins team. PICK: Bills -3

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-3): The Colts are bad. Each week it gets harder to believe the Colts decided to extend the contracts of Chuck Pagano and Ryan Grigson. The Titans are probably better than most would have expected this year. They’re not great but they’re at least average or so. Home field advantage works in their favor here. PICK: Titans -3

Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions (-1): Washington is 4-2 after getting off to an 0-2 start. It’s really hard to see them rattling off five wins in a row. Their offense can score, yes, but their defense still isn’t very good. The good news for the Lions’ defense, which also hasn’t been great, is that Washington will once again be without Jordan Reed on Sunday. Detroit is vulnerable against tight ends. Matthew Stafford has been playing well under Jim Bob Cooter and that should continue this week. PICK: Lions -1

New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (-6): The Saints’ defense is bound to given up a ton of points like it does every week. Their offense doesn’t have trouble scoring, but Drew Brees could run into some issues going up against Marcus Peters. The second-year cornerback has five interceptions through five games this year. The Chiefs’ defense could play well enough to cover the spread. PICK: Chiefs -6

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-10.5): The Bengals aren’t playing well enough to be trusted to cover in this situation. Yes, the Browns are bad, but three of their losses were by six points or less. This is a division game and those can always be closer than expected. Cleveland might not win here, but the feeling is that they at least have a decent shot to cover. Cody Kessler has been surprisingly decent. PICK: Browns +10.5

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles: This has the makings of a low-scoring game. The Vikings have the best defense in the NFL. They’re only allowing 12.6 points per game. Their offense, however, is only scoring 18 points per game. Sam Bradford has played well but there’s reason to believe Philadelphia’s defense could rebound this week. Minnesota is missing their two starting offensive tackles and the Birds are looking to shake up their pass rush rotation. With that said, Carson Wentz could also face a lot of pressure. The Eagles’ offense failed to score a touchdown last week and trying to do so against Minnesota’s defense will be an even tougher task. The feeling here is that the game will be close, so there’s a chance the Eagles could cover, but Minnesota gets the benefit of the doubt. PICK: Vikings -3

Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets (-2): Joe Flacco will reportedly be active on Sunday. It remains to be seen if his shoulder injury will impact his performance. Even if he’s less than 100%, it’s hard to count on the Jets to cover. New York ranks dead last in DVOA by Football Outsiders. They’ve looked awful. Maybe switching from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Geno Smith will help, but I’ll believe it when I see it. For now I’ll take the points. Baltimore has never lost four straight under John Harbaugh. PICK: Ravens +2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) at San Francisco 49ers: Switching from Blaine Gabbert to Colin Kaepernick didn’t make a big difference for the 49ers last week. It almost doesn’t matter who’s playing quarterback for the 49ers if their defense continues to struggle. San Francisco has allowed 185 points this season: the most in the NFL. The Buccaneers aren’t much better than the 49ers but at least they’re coming off extra rest due to their Week 6 bye. PICK: Buccaneers -1

San Diego Chargers at Atlanta Falcons (-6): The Chargers are better than their 2-4 record indicates. San Diego owns the 11th best point differential in the NFL. Their biggest margin of defeat this season is six points. I’m not sure if they’ll leave Atlanta with a win but I can see them keeping the game close. The Bolts have the benefit of extra rest due to playing on Thursday Night Football last week. PICK: Chargers +6

New England Patriots (-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers: Landry Jones. Need I say more? He’s just not very good. The Patriots should win with ease despite being on the road. PICK: Patriots -8

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-1): This is a really tough pick. The Cardinals have rebounded after getting off to a bad start. But the Seahawks aren’t looking too shabby either. Seattle ranks second overall in DVOA. I won’t be fully convinced Arizona has truly put their struggles behind them until they beat the Seahawks this week. In the meantime, I’ll stick with thinking that Russell Wilson can get the job done on the road. PICK: Seahawks +1

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-9): I have a feeling Brock Osweiler won’t be having a revenge game in Denver. The Texans are worse than their 4-2 record indicates. Only eight teams have worse point differentials than Houston does. The Broncos will be itching to get a win after dropping their last two games. Denver’s defense will shut Brock down and it’ll be a long day for the Texans. PICK: Broncos -9