Three-And-Out: Eagles-Dolphins Predictions

PLAYER I’LL BE WATCHING

McManus: DeMeco Ryans

“You can definitely understand his voice when he’s back there; it’s a lot deeper than the younger guys,” joked Cedric Thornton when asked about DeMeco Ryans returning to the mix. “That’s funny you asked, though: today he was back in practice, he called a play and I looked back and I was like, ‘OK, I got you.’ You can definitely appreciate his presence and what he brings to the team, how he gets us lined up and the impact that he has on Sundays…It’s just really good to have him out there.”

The importance of Ryans to this defense gets underplayed due in part to the depth at the position and the fact that he hasn’t looked quite himself since returning from a second Achilles tear. But there’s no denying that the defense has a different feel to it when he’s roaming the middle.

Consider: Over the last two games — both of which Ryans missed with a hamstring strain — the defense has allowed 5.45 yards per rushing attempt. With Ryans running the show in the six games prior to that, the Eagles were at the top of the league with an opposing rush average of 3.5. There are other factors to consider (like Carolina’s potent attack, for instance) but the fact that the numbers jumped the way they did in Ryans’ absence is no coincidence.

“In the run game he’s going to be there and the running backs know he’s going to be there. The impact he has on the game, it’s just like you walking down the street with a pit bull,” said Thornton. “People are terrified: that’s a pretty pit, but we don’t know, there’s a possibility he might bite. That’s what it is: there’s a possibility that DeMeco might bite out there on the field. And he’s gonna bite.”

With Jordan Hicks lost for the year, it’s all the more important that the man they call “Captain” is out there. He is expected to be back in the lineup starting Sunday against the Dolphins.

Paunil: Jason Kelce

It’s no secret why the Eagles have won three of their last four games: they’re running the ball better. Since Week 3, the Eagles have averaged 4.8 yards per carry and 150.5 yards per game, ranking second in the NFL in the latter category. Philadelphia is also one of three teams to feature two running backs with at least 350 rushing yards this season.

Why have they become so successful? The offensive line. Ryan Mathews and DeMarco Murray finally have running lanes to take advantage of, and it’s likely that will continue against Miami. The Dolphins rank 26th in the NFL in yards per carry allowed (4.5) and 31st in rushing yards per game given up (142.1).

Although he hasn’t quite lived up to the hype after becoming the highest-paid defensive player in NFL history, Ndamukong Suh is still a force inside. I could’ve picked any interior offensive lineman because Suh will line up across different players, but I’m especially curious about how Kelce will handle him.

The 2014 Pro Bowl center was surprisingly bad in the first half of the season, but he has improved. Suh will be a good test, and Kelce mentioned the defensive tackle has played better since the Dolphins’ coaching change.

“They’ve done some things, recently, to put him in better positions,” Kelce said. “Early in the season he was doing a lot of techniques where he was kind of head-up, and he wasn’t playing his usual technique of penetrating and getting off the ball. As of late, they’ve kind of let him get back to doing that.”

OVER/UNDER: 150 rush yards for Eagles offense — Whaddya got?

McManus: I’ll try the over.

The Eagles have eclipsed that number in each of the last four games, averaging a highly-impressive 173 yards per game over that span.

Some fun facts that Ron Jaworski fired off on 97.5 The Fanatic:

— The four-game stretch of 150-yard games is the team’s longest since 1992.

— In the team’s four wins, they’re averaging 36 rushes and 159 yards; in their four losses, 20 rushes and 83 yards.

— In their first four games, the offense deployed two tight-end sets nine percent of the time; the last four, 38 percent. The run game is averaging six yards per rush when in two tight-end sets over that time.

The run game is on the rise. And considering Miami is the second worst team in the league at stopping the rush (142 yards/gm), as you mentioned, there’s reason to believe it will continue crank this week.

Paunil: I agree.

We’ve already thrown a few stats at our readers exemplifying the strides the offensive line has made, but I’ll add another: Murray averaged 2.8 yards before contact against the Cowboys Sunday night.

As for the success the running backs have had? Mathews averaged 4.6 yards per rush after contact against Dallas, which Chip Kelly talked about on Wednesday.

“He is just a big, physical runner, and I think you notice that on film,” Kelly said. “And one of the reasons we were attracted to him is his style of running, I think, fits in terms of what we want to get accomplished offensively. It fits in our model – big, physical back; tough, hard-nosed runner and [he’s] doing a nice job for us.”

PREDICTIONS

McManus: Eagles 30, Dolphins 20

It appears the offense is hitting its stride. The Eagles have averaged 29 points per game over their last four. The run game has clicked in (as detailed above), while Sam Bradford and the pass attack found some footing in Dallas on Sunday night.

It sounds like Jason Peters will miss a second straight game with back issues, meaning it will once again be Lane Johnson on the left side and Dennis Kelly on the right. While that is still not an ideal lineup, the offensive front held up well last week in Peters’ absence and now has the benefit of playing at home. It should be able to take care of business against Miami. I expect the defense to button things up on their end, and think the Eagles win somewhat comfortably.

Paunil: Eagles 28, Dolphins 21

We got a taste of what the Eagles’ offense is capable of last week when they combined tempo with a productive rushing attack, and I expect to see that again this week. I also anticipate Bradford playing well because when defenses have to focus on the run game, passing lanes open up. Plus, Miami doesn’t have a great pass rush.

I was initially going to pick the Eagles by more than a touchdown, but given their recent struggles against the run and Miami’s efficiency on the ground, the Dolphins may present a bigger challenge offensively than people are giving them credit for. Regardless, I think we’ll see Philadelphia atop the NFC East after this weekend.