No-22: How Mariota Would Fit With the Eagles


MAKING NFL THROWS

This is the the biggest question you’ll hear with Mariota in the coming weeks, and to a degree, it has legitimacy.

Kelly often talks about the idea of “NFL open.” The head coach will rarely admit that there are a lot of differences between the professional game and the college game, but this is one point he has conceded. In college, Kelly’s quarterbacks could often see receivers open, throw the ball and complete the pass.

In the NFL, the windows are smaller, anticipation is necessary, and QBs have to rely on receivers to make contested catches. Will Mariota be able to adjust at the next level?

There are some positive indicators.

For example, here’s a back-shoulder throw he made against Florida State. There was a flag on the play, but he still pulled the trigger and put the ball where it needed to be against man coverage:

Here against Washington, Mariota lets his receiver go up and make a play in the end zone:

[Click to 3:45 mark]

Again, there are not a lot of examples of him doing this, but that’s because Oregon schemed up open receivers so well.

A WEAPON IN THE RUN GAME

Old-school types will need to look away now. The idea that quarterbacks should be judged on anything other than their ability to operate from the pocket will scare some.

But for several teams (including the Eagles), the QB plays a critical role in the run game. Whichever coach drafts Mariota would be making a mistake by not adding zone-read elements into his offense.

Mariota ran 135 times for 770 yards and 15 touchdowns last season. In 2013, he carried 96 times for 715 yards and nine scores.

Assuming Mariota runs at the combine, take a look at not only his 40 time, but his first 10-yard split. The ability to make a quick decision on a zone-read play, pull the ball and take off before defenders can react is critical. I think Mariota possesses that.

He’s got some elusiveness too to go along with the straight-line speed:

And look at him turn the corner against UCLA:

[Click to 1:59 mark]

When quarterbacks are used in the run game, the injury question always surfaces. It was a mixed bag with Mariota in terms of avoiding big hits and protecting himself.

At times, he showed a willingness to slide and get out of harm’s way. In other instances, he lowered his shoulder and embraced the contact. Obviously, going that route in the NFL will be a bad idea.

HIS FIT WITH THE EAGLES

If you want to see smoke come out of Kelly’s ears, mention to him that the Eagles’ offense is exactly like the one he ran at Oregon. He seems to find it insulting that some would suggest he basically made no adjustments and continued to do what he has always done.

It’s true that there are differences between the two. The Eagles have added run plays like the counter that Oregon doesn’t run. And the passing game is more involved.

But there are still plenty of similarities. The obvious ones? Mariota has operated an up-tempo, no-huddle offense. He knows how to run the zone-read and make decisions on packaged plays that sometimes involve tossing the ball to the perimeter.

The Eagles ran four verticals a ton last year. Think that was in Mariota’s playbook in college?

[Click to 4:13 mark]

The Eagles use double posts in the red zone. Oregon uses double posts in the red zone. The Eagles use Y-Cross a bunch. Oregon uses Y-Cross. And the list goes on.

Would there be an adjustment period? Sure. But Mariota would have an enormous advantage in terms of his development and learning curve if he were drafted by the Eagles.

WILL CHIP GO FOR IT?

Based on everything I know about Kelly, it’d be a mistake to downplay the idea that he’s going to make a push for his former quarterback.

Consider his overall drafting philosophy. Based on what we’ve seen the past two years, Kelly prefers an evidence-based approach that limits the projection as much as possible. For example, when drafting a defensive lineman, Kelly wants to have seen on film that the player has the ability to two-gap.

When drafting a safety, he wants to see that the player has covered slot receivers man to man.

When drafting an outside linebacker, he wants to make sure the player has experience dropping into coverage.

And so on.

Now extend that philosophy to the quarterback position. No prospect will have shown more evidence of being able to effectively run Kelly’s scheme than Mariota. Some have argued that the offense and the team would immediately take a step back if the Eagles started a rookie. It’s tough for me to concede that point.

Remember, this is still a run-first spread, and the run game would immediately be a nightmare to defend with Mariota and LeSean McCoy.

And there is evidence that Kelly’s offense is QB-friendly. Mark Sanchez completed 55.1 percent of his passes and averaged 6.5 YPA in 62 games with the Jets. Last year, those numbers were 64.1 percent and 7.8. Did Sanchez suddenly become a better quarterback in his sixth season? Or did the scheme help him in some aspects?

Where Kelly has to rely on the quarterback is with things like decision-making and athleticism – two positives when it comes to Mariota.

The argument can certainly be made that the Eagles should build up the defense and stick with Nick Foles. Ultimately, maybe that’s the path they take.

Foles has started 18 games for Kelly, and the head coach should have a good idea at this point about what he has. The feeling here is that Kelly likes Foles personally and thinks he can win games with him running the show. But he also knows that certain limitations exist with Foles that might not exist with Mariota.

It’s still a longshot that the Eagles will be able to land the Heisman winner, but the thought here is that Kelly will definitely try. If the Bucs want Mariota at No. 1, there’s nothing the Eagles can do.

And as always, cost will be the determining factor. We don’t know how teams in the top five will view Mariota or what Kelly will be willing to give up. But we do know that he’ll be calling the shots, and if he wants to do something drastic, it’s unlikely that anyone in the organization will stop him.

There are no guarantees when it comes to this sort of thing, but the floor with Mariota in an Eagles uniform is a lot higher than it is with other teams.

Given his physical skill set and everything we hear about Mariota’s work ethic, if he were to fail here, it would probably mean Kelly is not the coach Jeffrey Lurie thought he was when he brought him to Philadelphia two years ago.