Draft Buzz: How Far Could Geno Smith Fall?

Welcome to draft week. Let’s get started with a league-wide roundup. And if you haven’t done so already, check out yesterday’s post on Darrelle Revis, EJ Manuel and Matt Scott.

Let’s start with Geno Smith. Good luck finding anyone who has a handle on where the West Virginia quarterback is going to go. Tweeted ESPN’s Chris Mortensen:

And SI.com’s Peter King added:

ESPN’s Chris Mortensen, tweeting Sunday night about what more and more people in the NFL feel: Only four or five teams in the first round could take West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith — the consensus top quarterback in this week’s draft — and there is absolutely no guarantee that one will.

Obviously, there’s plenty of misdirection this time of year, but up until now, we’ve been discussing Smith as a possibility for the Eagles at No. 4. I’ve said for weeks that I don’t think they’re going to take him at that spot, but what if he falls into the 20s? What if he’s there at the start of the day Friday?

On one hand, you could argue that if the Eagles don’t like him enough to take him at No. 4, then they’re not going to take him if he falls. But that’s not really true. The farther he falls, the lower the risk. To exaggerate the point, I can pretty much guarantee the Eagles would take Smith if he was available in the sixth or seventh round.

My guess? Smith is still going to go in the top-10, but clearly, no scenario is off the table for Thursday night.

On that same note, Mortensen reports that there’s a “growing belief” that the Bills could take Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib with the No. 8 pick. Nassib played for coach Doug Marrone at Syracuse, and if Buffalo feels good about him, it might avoid the risk of waiting for him in the second round.

In his latest mock draft for Rotoworld, Josh Norris has Nassib going No. 8:

The closer we get, the more confident I am that this will be the pick. A “get your guy when you can” scenario, if you will. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if the quarterback run does not take place until later in the first-round.

Norris also thinks the Eagles could trade back into the first round (No. 29) for EJ Manuel:

Like the Jaguars, this selection could be a number of quarterbacks, but Manuel fits the bill in many categories. “Clean slate” and “coachable” are words frequently floating around Manuel, which leads me to think the NFL believes the QB was held back by coaches in college.

Greg Cosell of NFL Films unveiled the first of his two-part mock draft on Yahoo Sports, projecting picks 17 to 32. Obviously, that’s not where the Eagles pick, but there are some names he has going in the first round that are of interest: Florida International safety Jonathan Cyprien (No. 21), Kansas State linebacker Arthur Brown (No. 25), UCLA defensive lineman Datone Jones (No. 26), Florida State defensive lineman Tank Carradine (No. 28) and Alabama defensive lineman Jesse Williams (No. 31).

All of those players could be second-round targets for the Eagles if they fall.

Meanwhile, King predicts another potential target, Oregon offensive lineman Kyle Long, will also go in the first round.

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  • http://twitter.com/Lez215 Dutch

    The clear cut winner of the 2013 Draft is Tampa Bay. The Bucs turned pick 13 into a immediate contributor destined to run off a string of Pro Bowls and will require specific game planning so that he doesn’t negatively impact the Bucs opponents.

    There’s pressure on every team drafting before 13 to meet those standards.

    This draft is about Geno Smith and any one of the 3 Tackles.

    • Tom W

      Guess you didn’t read Revis tore his acl and had at least one concussion last year and there is no guarantee he comes backs as the same player. Ohh and he turns 28 in July. I would argue Tampa got the better of the deal. Even his last healthy year in 2011, Revis wasn’t lockdown as he was before the first contract holdout.

      I dont think there is any pressure nor do they feel any pressure nor care about the Revis deal … there is alot of teams who needed corner help — and you didn’t hear one of them (Browns, Dolphins, Niners, Falcons) make a peep about Revis. Seems to me that kind sorta weakens your argument. If Revis was so highly touted why was he linked to only one team for the last 3 months?????????

      • http://twitter.com/Lez215 Dutch

        Only a few teams had the cap space to sign this kid. I also think Tampa got the better of the deal, Revis paired with Dashon Goldson. are a good combination and instantly gives Tampa the supreme defensive backfield in the NFC South if not the entire NFL.

        It’s apparent you doubt Revis is the premiere corner in the NFL despite his recognition of 4 pro bowls, and 3 consecutive 1st team all Pro seasons to go with being recognized as 2009 Defensive Player of the Year, all before turning 28 years old. Again this simply boils down to individual preferences and standards.

        When you consider the QBs and Receiving tandems in the NFC South division the new additions to the Bucs backfield is a sound strategy to compete for the division crown.

        But, I’d have to ask, who do you think is better? and, where is there any evidence Revis production is declining?

        • Wilbert M.

          You could argue that the Raiders version of Nnamdi was as good and look how that turned out. Who knows if Revis will be the same player after the knee and to top it off, he’s a constant malcontent. I have to agree with others that the Jets made out great in this deal.

          • http://twitter.com/Lez215 Dutch

            You certainly could. However the obvious difference is Revis is 28 and had he not renegotiated with the Jets, this would have been the 1st contract signing after his rookie Contract.

            How is Revis, the Best Corner in the League a Malcontent because he commanded to be paid in accordance with his recognition as the absolute premium defender in the NFL?

            How is it not possible to not pay a rookie who was recognized with an invitation to the pro bowl, his due after out performing his contract?

          • Geagle

            This ends two ways for the Bucs….
            1) 2 years pass, and they realize you cant buy a SB, and that you do actually have to build it the right way, and they move on from Revis…so they are basically giving up the 13th pick in this draft, and a 3rd round pick in next draft to rent Revis for two years…Riddle me this…IF a CB is actually worth good QB money, dont you think the niners, who CB is probably there weakness, and are so close to a SB, having more pics than they can even use, would have atleast tried to talk to Revis to see if they can work something out? They never got permission to even speak to Revis, which means they had no interest in even inquiring about him…How about the Seahawks? They havent resigned Marcus Trufant yet, and they are basically up for a SB run…how come they didnt even inquire abou the best CB in the league?
            2) The other scenario, is Revis actually returns to the player he was pre-injury, plays great this year, and then Does what Revis does, holds the franchise Hostage next season and holds out? The moment Revis gets a little bit of leverage back, does anyone actually think he is going to play without any guarenteed money for the next 6 years? hahahah
            This is honestly one of the dumbest moves immaginable in my oppinion…and it shows that they are more concerned about becoming good and exciting to sell tickets, than actually build to a superbowl..its so transparent….Whats shocking is the Jets actually did something smart…two bad franchises, I would much rather be BAD, and building the right way to atleast give yourself a glimmer of hope to one day win a SB…than to be GOOD, but Limited, and no shot to ever win it. How can a bad franchise trade away the 13th pick in the draft, and give QB money to a guy, who will defend about 10 passes per game, and is one of the easiest position to scheme out of a game? The dumb parroted line ‘you put Revis on one side, and he just locks down that hole side of the field, and QB’s are forced to look the other way’…what A BUNCH OF CRAP!..WHat happens if they run Trips formation(using one of the Recievers Revis is guarding)? Is Revis just going to shut down that side of the field, and defend all 3 recievers?, does he also defend the RB in the flat? How about if a TE runs a post to that side?
            ……………
            What a waste of money….What a joke of a franchise the bucs are..Even when they are a decent, young an exciting team, they go out and instead of continue to build on it, they blow close to 30Mil a year on Goldson and Revis, and screw up what they were actually bui;lding towards…hahahah Your entire starting secondary shouldnt cost you more than 30mil per year………………….
            I could understand giving up that type of money to a pass rusher, who’s pressure on opposing QB’s, can help the other 10 men on your defense…but to give 1 CB 16Mil, in todays high Octane passing league is simply idiotic. At best, on average, how many passes a game does a starting CB even defend? 10 per game? The only thing a CB can do is defend 1 WR at a time, it shouldnt cost 16mil to do so…A DE is involved in every single play that he is on the field..a CB is involved in like 10 per game…Last year, when our line sucked an Foles had no time to throw, what team needed a CB? Foles would get hit before he could even think about throwing it….I am baffled by the Buck..what a joke.

        • http://www.philthycanuck.com/ Adam

          Does the fact that he’s coming off an ACL tear completely escape you? You’re spewing out all these numbers and titles which all happened before one of the worst injuries a football play can go through that SEVERELY threatens their ability to play at the same level as they ever did. And before you come back with the Adrian Peterson retort, that is the 1 case out of 100. Fact is 99% of the time players take years to get back their old form, if they even do.

          Fact is this is a MASSIVE gamble on the part of the Bucs, giving up so much money and picks when you don’t know if you’re going to get anything close to the old Revis. And even if he comes close, when does a 16 mil corner ever turn a 7-9 team with an already stout secondary with no franchise quarterback in to a Super Bowl team?

          • http://twitter.com/Lez215 Dutch

            For your argument to have credibility you’d have to hope he doesn’t make 100% recovery. None of the Contract is guaranteed, it’s cost the Bucs a 1st round draft pick and there is surely no “Can’t Miss” Prospects available so in retrospect drafting one of the available players is just as much as a Gamble, isn’t it? Tampa having a “Stout” D Backfield is a bit of an exaggeration, isn’t it? Barbra was released, and Wright just had to take a $6 to $3 Million pay cut, that’s not the signs of a team being content with their D Backfield.

            But, I get you don’t think Revis is deserving of his recognition so again I ask, do you sincerely believe that Eric Wright is just as talented and productive as Revis over the last 5 years? If not Eric Wright than who is as accomplished as Revis playing corner in the NFL?

          • http://www.philthycanuck.com/ Adam

            Oh my god. Please. Just stop.

            NO WHERE AM I SAYING THAT REVIS WAS NOT TALENTED AND PRODUCTIVE. Since Revis has entered the league I will say it loud and clear and sing it from the roof tops, that he was the best corner in the league, maybe one of the best to ever play the game.

            …. and then he TORE HIS ACL.

            With Eric Wright, Dashon Goldson and Mark Barron it is absolutely not a stretch to say that Tampa had stout backfield before the Revis trade.

            ANY player coming off ACL tear surgery is about as far as you can get from “can’t miss”. If there was no injury, then absolutely 100% I would agree that I would give up a first round pick for Revis, but that’s a moot point. He had the injury.

            Fact is the Bucs paid a pre-injury price for a post injury Revis. It’s a massive gamble, and even if it pays off and Revis comes back to 100% next year, how long do you think he’s going to stay happy when he’s playing on a contract with no guaranteed money? I believe it was you who said Revis “commanded to be paid in accordance with his recognition as the absolute premium defender in the NFL?” Ohhhh.. well the absolute premium defender in the league deserves some guaranteed money! Don’t think he didn’t ask for any out of the kindness of his heart. He can holdout in 2014 and the Bucs will cut him because it will cost them nothing. Then he go sniffing out his next big contract, where he can cause more headaches.

          • http://twitter.com/Lez215 Dutch

            I’m saying If it’s not obvious, Revis coming off an ACL is a better corner than anything suiting up in Tampa and vastly improves the Buc’s presence. I don’t have a doubt he’ll make a complete recovery, but if he doesn’t return to form, I’m still confident he’s going to be a major contributor in the Bucs system.

            Why is the salary of the player such a concern? In this deal he’s tasked with proving his worth annually. Who can ask for better or a fairer agreement?

            For me, I don’t have a concern with his rehabilitation and believe as does the Bucs he will return to form at worst still better than serviceable in the NFL. Revis until proven different is still one the the two most impactive defenders in the NFL. and again, 50% of Revis is still better than anything you could expect from the 13th player chosen in this year’s draft and any other corner playing in Tampa now.

            The Eagles have a similar scenario with Phillips, who’s often injured and attempting to regain his form after his knee injury that’s hampered his production over the last two years with the Giants. That has not precluded the Eagles form signing and depending on him

            The Eagles pass defense was 9th in 2012, Tampa Bay pass defense was rated 32nd out of 32 Teams. Tell us some more about how you think ” it’s absolutely not a stretch not to say Tampa Bay pass defense was no stout”

            Sure.

        • theycallmerob

          I don’t understand your logic. Any player drafter below 13 will be younger, healthier, and cheaper than Revis. You opine how he is the greatest CB, though many said that about Nnamdi a few years back, and many say that about Sherman now. $16 mil a year is absurd, especially since 2/3 of that contract is when he’s 30+. I get all the accolades, but how does the bucs overspending 2 years in a row set the bar for any other team?

          • theycallmerob

            never mind. I replied before scrolling down.

    • Geagle

      hahahahahahahahahaha…the winner is the JETS…2 bad teams, that need to rebuild and find a franchise QB…and you think the rebuilding team, that gave up a 1st and a 3rd, and signed a non QB to a QB type payday, is the WInner? GEEZ, thank god you arent running our team!

      • Geagle

        How many teams won anything, paying a CB $15Mil?

        an entire starting secondary should cost 20Mil per year!~

      • GW.Fisher

        As an Eagles fan, mind you, Revis is short-term thinking by the Bucs. Jet’s get a young stud CB at 13 and pay him waaaaay less $$. Jets win, Jets win…

        • Geagle

          exactly…..Bucs will have to learn it the hard way, just like we had to!

        • Richard Colton

          I don’t see them going CB with that pic. Too much pressure to be Revis II. No matter what the kid does in his career he’ll be disappointing

          • http://twitter.com/Lez215 Dutch

            Finding a replacement for Revis in this draft or free agency are big shoes to fill.
            Replacing Revis’s production is anything but plug and play. It’s delusional to expect as much.

        • http://twitter.com/Lez215 Dutch

          That’s true, however it’s not certain that any rookie coming in could be expected to perform like Darrelle Revis, if one does that’s great but there is clearly no available D Back in this draft who is expected to pick up in production were Revis left off.

          But there’s always hope

        • B-West

          If you give Revis a 50% chance of returning to form as a stud CB, the chances of finding a stud CB at 13 are much less than Revis returning to form. There is much more chance associated with a draft pick than people seem to think. A quick google search turned up this article..

          http://aol.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2012-04-22/nfl-draft-2012-first-round-disappointments

          As for the money, if Revis returns to being a top 5 defensive player in the league, its justified. If not, you can cut him with no financial repercussion since there is no guaranteed money.

          I’m just saying, if you look at the actual success rate of draft picks (and high draft picks as the above article studies), you get a clearer picture of the value of the 13th pick. I’d rather gamble on Revis than that pick.

          • Tom W

            Love the article. Actually discredits the “otackle is so safe” argument that the sheep keep spouting over at philly.com.

            Only problem is bucs wont just cut revis after giving up a high first and conditional 3d. That would be idiotic. more likely even if he stinks this yr, they keep him a second yr. Thus revis gets 32 mil.

            And I wouldn’t agree the chances of Revis returning to all-pro form are better than 50-50. I mean besides AP and arguably Jam Charles, name me a player that has returned to all-pro form after tearing his ACL.

            One final important overlooked pt — Revis had a rough concussion last yr before the knee. That really worries me.

          • B-West

            The best list I could find was from 2010, but it shows a pretty solid list of players who bounced back from ACL tears. I had forgotten all about Jerry Rice tearing his ACL, but it also brings back a bad visual image of McGahee in the championship game.

            http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2010/2/12/1307175/torn-acl-success-stories

            So, its certainly not a death sentence, and medical science continues to amaze more and more. (See your AP example.) I was just trying to counter the overwhelming anti-Bucs sentiment. Its not as big a risk, nor as big a loss of value in draft picks as this thread would have you think.

          • http://twitter.com/Lez215 Dutch

            Well this thread would have you believe that the Bucs Passing Defense was competitive in 2012, and has been described by a couple of guys here as “Stout” and that’s just flat out ridiculous to suggest.
            The Bucs pass defense was 5 times worse than the Eagles pass Defense. The Bucs are ranked near the bottom of all NFL Pass Defenses in 2012.
            It’s not surprising that the idea Tampa made a bad deal originated from some of those that think that defense was “Stout”

          • http://twitter.com/Lez215 Dutch

            Sort of like the Eagles with draft picks, Casey Mathews and Danny Watkins, and Watkins was a camp holdout. How unbelievable was that.

    • http://www.philthycanuck.com/ Adam

      Oh god, please. What a terrible move by the Bucs. They could have had Milliner for a fraction of that price, not to mention he’s way younger. Yeah, Revis is better than Milliner, but not enough of a drop off to command almost 5 times the price. Plus Milliner would be playing in an already stacked secondary, so the difference wouldn’t be near as noticeable.

      You think Revis took 0 guaranteed money because he’s that confident he’s going to come back and dominate? Ha. More like he took it because in a year or two he can hold out and the Bucs can cut him without financial implications and he can go on demanding another big contract. This guy is already talking about how great is that the orgainzation “thinks so highly of ME” and that this trade worked out “great for ME”. He’s a head case.

      It doesn’t even make sense for the Bucs to make this move. Like I said earlier the secondary is already stacked. They could have plugged anyone in there and it would have been OK. Plus, they’re not even close to being in contention. As long as Josh Freeman is their QB they aren’t winning anything. And the actual GOOD teams where this move would make sense (Falcons, 49ers) didn’t bite on him. So it must say something.

      Bucs are going to learn in a few years of not winning and big free agent contracts (Nicks, Jackson and now Revis) that you can’t buy a championship.

      • Geagle

        good stuff Adam….What team ever built a superbowl champion through FA?…The BUCS ARE NOT building the right way….what they are trying to do is get better, faster..but if you are just happy with being relevant and competitive, than I guess you can say that the Bucs did a good job….But I have been to too many NFC Championships, to give a damn about being better and relevant..The only thing that Matters is building a superbowl winner, and unless you do it the right way, you basically have no shot…I would rather take 2 extra years of being bad(as long as we are building the right way)…than to make all these dumb ass moves that the Bucs have been making just so that they can be better…At the end of the day, Tampa will have to tear this down, start over and build the right way and they WILL NOT have a SB to show for it…Howie has already learned his lesson, and it showed in free agency….Short cuts to a superbowl, end up being the extra long route, because it never works, and then you have to tear it down and do it the right way…Lucky for us, its a lesson that Howie has already learned..

      • http://twitter.com/Lez215 Dutch

        Well, we know Revis is a game changer, Milliner we don’t know what he’s going to eventually turn out to become and in the mean time, the NFC South has to many Quarterback, Receiver pairings of quality to go into the division games uncertain of your talent.

        As I suggested to the guy above, Tampa Bay with Revis and Goldson have one of the better if not Best Safety, Corner tandem in the league to contend against some of the better receiving combinations in the league.

        • http://www.philthycanuck.com/ Adam

          We know Revis WAS a game changer. We NOTHING about the post ACL tear Revis. Eric Wright isn’t exactly uncertainty either.

          And that’s great, they could (at that’s a very big could) have the best corner/safety tandem, but it’s not going to do them any good to win a championship. Especially with Freeman as their QB.

          • http://twitter.com/Lez215 Dutch

            Are you saying Eric Wright is comparable to Darrelle Revis and commands from opposing Offensive Coordinators the same game planning attention and details?
            How many times has Eric Wright been voted Defensive Player of the Year? There is only one other Corner, to have achieved that status, was it Eric Wright? You do know Wright had to rework is contract for 2013, from $7 million down to $1 to $3 Million, I guess they don’t share your sentiments with regard to Wright in Tampa Bay.

          • http://www.philthycanuck.com/ Adam

            No, I’m saying Eric Wright is a good corner who is not coming off a career threatening injury, and would be very much serviceable as their 1CB for a much cheaper price and much less uncertainty than Revis and his gimped leg.

            Anyways, I’m just about done with this argument. Until you realize that Revis actually tore his ACL last year, I might as well debate with my coffee mug.

          • http://twitter.com/Lez215 Dutch

            Tampa’s Decision makers don’t agree with you obviously. They had a chance to take what they considered a impact premium player and took that option over gambling on pick 13, and I agree with their decision. Revis doesn’t have to come back 100% to be one of the better more productive Corners in the league. Wright being good, on two good wheels; isn’t in that class.

            However some of the concerns you displayed here troubles me with regard to the Eagles Free Agent singings, I don’t expect much from Phillip who has knee troubles that often limits his production.

          • theycallmerob

            I guess someone has never heard the Andrew Bynum Story, either.

          • http://twitter.com/Lez215 Dutch

            The Eagles just signed in Free Agency, Phillips, who has lingered off and on the injury list two years. he’s missed at this point more games than Revis. And Phillips returning to form gives you nothing close to the production Revis can at 65%.

          • Tom W

            Good stuff. saved me alot of time making the same counterarguments. And Revis took this contract because he knows no way bucs cut him after one yr after blowing a high first and a conditional 3d on him. Very poor decision by Tampa w so many corner prospects out there this yr in free agency. They couldve signed a Scott or Fletcher or Williams or Lewis or Grimes and followed up w a quality 2d or 3d round corner. And the bucs arent close to a superbowl w Josh Freeman so Im really surprised at this bonehead deal.

          • http://twitter.com/Lez215 Dutch

            You guys, not suprisingly are the only people who don’t see this deal as a great move for the Bucs, There is no way a talent like Revis is available consistently, this is a once in a decade opportunity to get a special talent. I think you guys are scared off by his injury, the Bucs and not many NFL people share that concern. Most decision makers in the NFL believe as I do that half of Revis is better than a vast majority of what’s in the league and anything in the draft. His talents are not easily duplicated

            There’s not a decision maker in Football that sees this trade negatively as you guys are trying to make it out to appear. The Eagles signed Phillips who has a history of knee problems, and none of you mentioned a concern. So really, how different is this trade? If Revis doesn’t perform he doesn’t get paid.

            There is no player in the draft capable of duplicating the production of Revis even at half measure. The Bucs Passing Defense was one of the worse in the NFL last year in a division that features Ryan, Newton and, Brees throwing to Gonzalas, White and Jones in Atlanta, and Colston in New Orleans, and lets not forget Steve Smith in Carolina.
            .
            It’s not a surprise to me that some of you amazingly believe the Bucs were “Stout” when it was crystal clear that the Bucs passing defense was swizz cheese, That’s where the disconnection exist. Our standards are very different. I’ve not heard anyone with any credibility describer the Bucs pass defense as other than terrible, except you guys here.

            There is not a quarterback or receiver in the division that doesn’t require specific game planning to give the opposition an edge.

            The probability is greater pick 13 will be a bust than the probability Revis does not regain his form after this surgery and that’s the bet the Buc are making.

  • barry_nic

    Don’t forget Dan Marino was a “reclamation project”, and We didn’t pick up Warren Sapp because of “rumors” that he had been caught smoking pot. That led us to pick up a combine god/flop instead. It’s probably all garbage, he was higher in the rankings than he should have been anyway. There will be so many linemen going in the top ten, that you’ll think you’re watching the elephants going by at the circus when they go up to shake Goodell’s hand.