Could the Eagles Look To Trade Down?

While all the mock drafts we list in this space project who the Eagles will take with the No. 4 pick, another possibility exists: They trade down.

It’s an option that makes plenty of sense, and the organization has been more than willing to deal in the past. Consider this: The Eagles have made a first-round trade in five of the past six drafts.

This year’s class is not considered top-heavy, and the Eagles are coming off a 4-12 season. If they can grab an extra pick or two to slide down and still get a player they covet, Howie Roseman could definitely consider the option.

Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com recently put out a list of the three teams most likely to trade down, and he included the Birds:

Philly already addressed several of its needs in the offseason. The Eagles added experienced starters to all three levels of their defense via free agency. The offensive line should be drastically improved, as long as key players like Jason Peters and Jason Kelce return to form following injuries in 2012. There is still a question mark at quarterback, but there isn’t a glaring weakness at another position that could only be addressed with the fourth overall pick in the draft. The Eagles could easily slide down a few slots and still get an impact player who fits into their new defensive scheme.

The obvious follow-up question here is: Which teams might be interested in trading up?

Jeremiah addresses that too, listing the Dolphins (No. 12 overall), the Vikings (Nos. 23 and 25) and the 49ers (No. 31). The Cardinals (No. 7) and Chargers (No. 11) also get a mention.

The key will be who’s available at No. 4. Offensive tackle is a an area to watch. It’s widely expected that either Texas A&M’s Luke Joeckel or Central Michigan’s Eric Fisher will be gone by the time the Eagles pick. And it’s possible that both players get taken in the top three. But if one of them is available, the Birds could receive some calls.

There is also the question of who the Eagles might target if they do move down. NFL Network’s Mike Mayock said earlier this offseason that the early picks probably won’t be much different than picks 20 or 25. The sense I get from the Eagles is that they partially agree with that statement, but aren’t willing to go as far as Mayock. In other words, there might not be a huge difference among the first 10 or 12 guys, but after that, there is a gap.

I could see someone like Oklahoma offensive tackle Lane Johnson grabbing the Eagles’ attention. The 6-foot-6, 303-pounder is the most athletic of the top-three tackles. He’s still expected to be a top-12 pick, but maybe the Eagles could move back and still land him.

Tavon Austin is a wild card. Many teams in the bottom half of the first round could be looking to move up to grab him. I’ve got to think Chip Kelly wouldn’t mind his first pick as the Eagles’ head coach to be on the class’ most dynamic offensive playmaker.

Defensively, there really are several options. Guys like Oregon OLB Dion Jordan, Utah DL Star Lotulelei and Alabama cornerback Dee Milliner could be top-five picks, or they could slip. All three could be fits for the Eagles as they rebuild their defense.

In a later post, we’ll explore potential compensation the Eagles could net for moving down, but clearly, sliding down is an option for them.

Follow Sheil Kapadia on Twitter and e-mail him at skapadia@phillymag.com.
Become a fan of Birds 24/7 on Facebook.

  • jdimagg55

    Move down, pick up an extra 2nd and grab Jarvis Jones.

    • Richard Colton

      that easy huh? How in love with the last few 2nd round picks have you been? Seems like more misses than hits. If you really want Jarvis Jones, there’s a chance he falls to round 2. Would you rather have one 90% chance at a pro-bowl player or two 15% chances?

      • CJ

        You’re comparing the top of this year’s draft to the success rate of the last two seasons? Really? The top 5 is so jumbled this year there’s probably one position group in the entire draft where there’s a unanimous #1 player (Vaccarro, at Safety). Every other position group has arguments, albeit some more valid than others. If the Eagles are considering 3 guys at 4, at least one slips to 9 or 10, I guarantee it. That itself throws that “90%” stat out the window, but don’t take my word for it. How about Gil Brandt:

        “A totally unique draft. I don’t think when we look at this draft five years from now that we’ll have as many Pro Bowlers in the top 10 than you had in either of the last two drafts. Like, I think if Ryan Tannehill were in this draft, he’d be the top pick — and he was [eighth] last year. Here’s how I’d put it: Between 11 and 50, there’s a lot of good players. But they’re very close between 11 and 50. And I’d say if you took the 45th player in 2013, he’d be slightly better than the 45th player in 2012. That’s the strength of this draft — the depth.”

        Any other draft, you may well be right, but this isn’t any other draft.

        • Richard Colton

          I actually like Gil Brandt, but come on, they make the same
          claim about every draft. The post-mortem doesn’t bear it out. It’s
          statistically safer to manage risk by picking top five in a draft with a rookie
          cap. Anyone you get late round is going to have more questions.
          #4 is too valuable for the future of this team to blow it just because we can move down and pick up the next Victor Abirimiri or Trevor Laws.

          • CJ

            So, since you totally ingored my first point altogether, here’s a question for you. Hypothetically speaking of course, how many “more questions” does drafting Dion Jordan at 10 raise as opposed to drafting Dion Jordan at 4?

          • CJ

            and another: how less likely is Jordan to reach the Pro-Bowl if he’s drafted 10th instead of 4th? Which, I might add is a totally BS stat these days given like 15 QBs were named Pro-Bowlers the one year when even David Garrard made it. And various examples of the same happen every year since it was moved to the week before the superbowl.

            In a draft as jumbled as this, your argument holds no water. I’ve walked through the top 10 on a few other threads here and showed how, if Jordan makes it past 4, he can easily fall to 10.

          • CJ

            last one, they weren’t claiming the top 5 is weak last season with Luck and RG3. You’re cherry picking stats (from only the last 2 drafts) and revising history (weak top of last draft) to support a patently absurd argument.

            If we’re doing that, I want to change my vote: I want the Eagles to trade three first rounders for the #2 pick so they can draft a franchise quarterback that fits Kelly’s scheme perfectly.

      • zphilly

        Exactly what CJ said below.

        Its not that the draft is generally speaking a lottery, but given the lack of certainty in this current years class (at the top), the likelihood of even advanced draft valuation systems (such as the excellent work put forward here: http://www.footballperspective.com/creating-a-nfl-draft-value-chart-part-i/) suggesting that our #4 pick will have an incredibly greater chance of finding a stud than slightly further back in the first is significantly diminished.

        And, a quick excerpt from Chase’s work (referenced above) illustrating how top picks are actually over-valued even discounting the lack of top-flight talent this year: “According to the AV graph, the top picks are significantly overvalued relative to the middle round selections.”

        Also, you restrict the significance of your arguments by limiting your sample sizes, thats why I made the point about the futility of using specific player examples or specific draft classes to make a general point.

        • Richard Colton

          Use every draft in the modern era. I’m only going back a few years because the rookie cap diminishes the negative impact of missing on a player near the top. Here’s what doesn’t change: the chances of finding a pro-bowl caliber player at the top of the draft is greater than finding one with two picks later in the draft.
          I understand what the allure is. The GM leaks (after the fact) that we got the guy at 10 that we targeted at 4, then the extra pick we got in the second round was on somebody’s “round two sleepers most likely to go to Canton” list, Then Peter King writes about how smart the Eagles are in MMQB. I’m a fan too. It’s what makes the draft fun. But facts are facts – Can’t mess up #4. We can’t.

          • CJ

            Mr. Colton, there’s a Robert Gallery on line 1. Sam Bradford, Tyson Jackson, and Aaron Curry, all called while you were out on lunch, but I told them you’d get the message. And those are all just top 5 picks since 09. Still think 90% is accurate? Maybe Bradford’s not an outright bust, but he’s no pro-bowler, either.

            Just because the last two years look good in the top 5, doesn’t mean they all have. And it doesn’t mean the top 5 from ’11 and ’12 will still look this good 5 years from now.

            I get your overall point, that if you pick 4th you have a shot at a better player than you do at 24th. That is a factually correct statement. However, in a draft where virtually every position group has conflicting rankings based on who you talk to, players coveted by certain teams will fall. That too is a factually correct statement. So if you move back a little (not past 16 I would say), you can still find a guy a team might value much higher, and still throw in extra picks later.

            I think the whole counter-argument here is that, if the Eagles want Dion Jordan at 4, but they feel they can get him at 10, and trade down, and still get him. 1) He’s no less of a player, 2) he has the same success rate as he would have at 4, and 3) there are other players involved in the deal that increase the overall odds of finding a playmaker.

            Because of scheme fit, limited experience on D, and superficial lack of production, he can fall. Joekel, Fisher, Smith, Ansah, Floyd, Star, Richardson, Millner all have (or have had) legitimate cases as top 5 picks in addition to Jordan. Not all will be, but that doesn’t decrease their chances just because a Jacksonville or Oakland does something stupid, or because one team needs a specific body type at DT over another (see Bunkley v. Ngata).

            If this draft had sure fire top 4 picks where we knew in like February who they’d be (like ahem, last year), I’d totally be in agreement with you, stay put and get the sure fire guy. But this draft just doesn’t have that. I’m not sure how you don’t see that.

          • CJ

            correction: Gallery was in 04, just the most glaring example of a sure fire guaranteed not to fail prospect at what’s widely statistically accepted as the safest position group at the top of the draft. The others were since 09.

          • Richard Colton

            Good stuff. Here’s what I meant by “mess up” – before the rookie cap, if a team didn’t hit on a top 5 pick, the cap hit hamstrung the franchise. That’s no longer the case, so it makes the top of the first round even more valuable.

            I don’t buy the “this draft is different from every other draft in history” argument. It’s silly and cliche and impossible to support.

            If the Rams offered me 16 and 22 for 4 right now, my answer is no. Both of those players might be hall of famers and my pick at 4 might be a bust, but my strategy was sound. Draft history is on my side here. But hey, it’s only football, right?

          • CJ

            also, fwiw. I never said this draft was different from any in history. Well, I guess I quoted Brandt saying something similar, close enough. My point was that this draft is different from the last two which was where you were pulling your stats from. And it is. Unless you could’ve told us in November who the #1 pick is going to be. (In which case, I’d love to know, I’m sure there’s odds on that I can play somewhere.) The top of the draft hasn’t been this unstable in more than just 2 years, and you can’t base success rate on pro bowls when there’s 4th and 5th alternates getting in anymore.

          • Richard Colton

            And if you’re talking about trading back 4 picks – I think I can live with that.

          • CJ

            That’s fair. I wouldn’t go back past 16. I would take that Rams deal if a Day 3 pick was thrown in. I really think there’s going to be a couple of names that really shock us fall into the middle of this draft. you could take that later #1 and maybe a 3 and a 5 to jump back up again if needed. That could get you 12, 16, and still keep #35, for just a 3 and a 5. Maybe in a scenario you lose out on those 3 OTs, but there’s still the thought of keeping Herramans where he is and draft one of those 2 top guards. That’s not my preference but still not a terrible move. You might still be able to pull Vaccarro or a slipping DT there at 16 and grab the other at 35. Or, grab someone like Armstead at 35 address the defense with 2 high picks.

            This is a draft made for the type of front office that’s aggressive and moves around the board. I often find it annoying, but I liked it last year, and I’m pretty sure you’ll see it work out this year on a trade down. This team doesn’t stay put often.

          • zphilly

            What i most take issue with here is the idea that trading down is inherently “messing up” the #4 pick. if the value is there to trade back I would absolutely want us to make the move.

            Also gotta remember we are a 4-12 team. i love our FA moves but we are NOT frankly contenders this year, so gunning for one “star” in a draft with NO surefire ones, while ignoring the potential for picking up multiple picks is just nonsense (again, all things are value dependent. If we don’t get the right trade package then obviously stay at 4, but if the right offer comes up, why would you not want to add more draft value?)

            The idea that winning championships is primarily based on star-power is also a bit flawed. There are a number of interesting studies done on this very topic.

            You’ll remember that the Chiefs had 6 pro bowlers last year and finished with 2 total wins. “Stars” do not equal championships (although they can certainly help), and “stars” are frequently “made” through winning championships, then depart their old franchise for greater money while extremely rarely replicating their success. Read the winners curse. Delves into this more capably than I can.

  • Richard Colton

    My vote is no. More than anything, Eagles lack star talent. In the 2012 draft, 4 first round picks have already made the probowl – 3 of the first 4 but only 1 of the next 28. In 2011, 8 first round players have reached a probowl, but 6 of them were taken in the first 7 picks.

    Point is – front offices are getting better and better at this. We should be able to get a star at #4. Trading down for #s 23 and 25? More risk. A team would have to blow me away with their offer – e.g. Chargers trade #11, #76 & next year’s #1 for #4.

    • cliff henny

      the only team i see over paying, is SF. the teams listed really arent in that much better situation than the eagles. issue is, since this draft is so deep, not necessary to pay extra to move to our 4, when it’s near same in talent to move to 8-10 for a lot less. my hope is SF is targeting a player, they have ridiculous riches in picks and players.

      • Richard Colton

        For the sake of argument, what do the 49ers give up in your scenario?

        • cliff henny

          have to look at exact picks they have and do the draft math, but obviously 31 and 34, from there it’s mostly are we taking next yrs 1st also. also, will foles be included (they do have a need for backup and cheap qb. sf does have minor cap issues, have alot of good players to extend) it’s the one chip we have that no one in top 10 has. i like foles, but given into he’s not what kelly wants. kelly’s has size speed weigh length for every positon but than is going to take less than athletic in the most important, that’s tough for me to believe. and SF needs to be targeting player, and Ziggy is great fit, smith went down and they struggled.

          • Richard Colton

            If I’m the Eagles, I pass. I like the idea of a #1 next year, but odds are the 49ers are picking late in round one again in 2013. The number 4 pick post rookie salary cap is too valuable. Matt Kalil or Doug Martin & Coby Fleener? AJ Green or Cam Heyward and Aaron Williams? My point is at #4 – you can get a star. At the back end of round one, who knows? No need to gamble here.

          • GGeagle21

            While I agree with you, because I personally wouldnt pass on Dion Jordan no matter what you offered me…But say our guy is Dion, Or Fisher…and they arent there at #4, then Im getting on the phone and pulling the trigger for a trade back…If you are going to trade back from 4, THIS is the draft class to do it: Parity at the top/Tremendous midround depth……..Next year, I would not agree, because you got GAME CHANGERS at the top like Clowney and actually good QBs, not the tallest midget in the room aka Geno Smith

  • cliff henny

    SF is an extremely interesting option. if you can accept dropping to 31, but the flip side is they have 34 and own 2rd, plus 2 in 3rd. they simply have the greatest problem every, too many picks (they dont have enough cap space to sign 15 guys) and too many good players (they dont have many weaknesses). the one area they struggled is when DE smith went down, LB aldon smith’s production sharply decreased or need CB. i really see no way they dont move up, not packing some high picks is just a waste. the fact is, every team in top ten is thinking of moving down, we arent the only ones with this idea. we have 2 things going for us, 1-gamble (still well liked, and people like to do business with people they like, human nature). 2-foles, they need a backup. too close to go with unknown rookie if kaep goes down. no one in top 10 can offer them, maybe jets with sanchez, but he stinks. i’d love this, cause we are volume shoppers in this draft and we need to max out our top 100 guys. or even take let them put next yrs 1st rounder in, and be easier to move up to get kelly long term QB.

    • GGeagle21

      I agree with everything except them trading for a QB. Im convinced they will draft EJ or Scott with one of their gazzillion picks to backup Kapernick………I do however agree that they cant pick 15 players. Im sure they will spend some, manuevering upwards during rounds to get guys they really like, or we could probably take a pick off their hands for a 2014 pick in return…For example, If Im the Niners, I get on the Horn with Andy Reid, who doesnt have a 2nd round pick and who you know is thinking he will have a much improved team thus he wont be picking high in the draft next year…and I give Andy a 2nd, for his 2014 1st round pick

      • cliff henny

        the key to all this ‘trading down talk’ is who willing to trade up and why. we can say, rams and chargers, but they have no reason. they know it’s a deep draft. it’s a sellers market and we’re trying to buy picks. 49ers have 3 holes,1 backup DE, ziggy at 4 is great, CB and backup QB, really thats it, they are stacked. if foles gets us ans extra 3rd (just let’s say) and we get reasonable value in return, than they would want to trade with us as opposed to every other top ten ten, who are all saying the same thing. if kaep gets hurt, dont they want rookie coming in. they may still draft qb, they have that many picks. hope someday we have their issue

        • GGeagle21

          foles is untradable…If he wasnt we would have fleeced the fatman. I dont know who else needs to tell us that Foles is untradable at this point for us to believe it….You dont trade away what you dont know, just because you dont like his 40time…I would bet anything that Foles is here at camp competing for the starting position…The argument to get rid of Foles is because he doesnt fit the style of the rest of the QBs on our roster…so why woul they want an imobbile QB backing up Kap? I think this mobile, Immobile talk is all just nonsense…You judge a QB if he is intelligent and accurate…If you have two guys that are equally intelli9gent and accurate that mobility might factor in…But in the world that I know…The more accurate QB, who makes the best decisions is the one that plays everytime…Kap isnt some WR playing QB…Kap has a CANNON, and makes good decisions with the ball…Russel Wilson doesnt run with the ball, he gets outsie the pocket and extends plays with his legs til he finds the open man to throw to(something Foles wasnt bad at inspite of his lack of speed. RG3 ran the ball alot, and got killed…bet he runs much less next year

        • cliff henny

          foles is more known than a rookie qb. i understand the all other qbs, foles would be nothing more than a backup. i’m reading all these trades, they make no sense from he other team’s point. the underlying fact is, the team trading up has the advantage, first time i’ve ever seen this. i would prefer us to hold onto foles, but SF has a need at backup qb, they need cheap too. the only reasson i’m discussing foles is to sweeten pot. if SF want Ziggy, they could easily wait till 6, and strike a cheaper deal. foles can stay an eagle, play this yr, backup once we draft in ’14. as per reid, it was never reported what we asked for, did we overplay, or did reid not really have that much interest and truly want smith. so that is pure spectulation.

        • CJ

          The chargers have no reason to move up?! King Dunlap is the #1 OT on that team. How is THAT not a good reason?

          • cliff henny

            oh, it’s a great reason to pick OT for them, but at 4? assume reid takes joeckel, johnson and fisher are closely ranked, they really wont be in need to tradedown till 2nd is picked. unless they target a player, like any other team and think he wont last past 4, they can play a waiting game till only 1 left. we also throw around long and pugh as starters that can taken in 2nd, so, they maybe thinking same. deep draft, they know this too.

          • CJ

            I think you’re looking at it backwards. If Joekel is gone, that leaves fisher and Johnson there at 4, and everywhere I’ve read ranks fisher closer to Joekel, not Johnson. Anyway, Backus retired leaving Detroit needing an LT. The Eagles could easily draft an OT too. Meaning SD may have to move up to get the Eagles #4 pick, because Detroit may not be so willing. And if they sit tight, they could lose out on all 3.

            Due to need, there is a chance all 3 OTs go in the top 5. There’s all sorts of scenarios like this that could play out on draft day, but I have to think because Detroit only has a couple of weaknesses (OT and Secondary) that fit in with the talent at the top of this draft, the Eagles’ pick will be desirable. It’s probably the most moveable pick in the top 5 because of how predictable I expect Detroit to be. If teams want Fisher/Johnson or Millner, they’ll have to jump Detroit to make sure they get their guy.

          • cliff henny

            very valid points.. at least you are giving a reason. reading thru here, all i see is draft math trades that work, with no substance behind them. we all agree it’s a deep draft, means the team trading up has advantage. there’s no rg3 or j jones. but i like your reasoning and hope it plays out in our favor. going to be an interesting draft. also, looking at jets, MM there, he likes foles, cant tell me NYJ fanbase is going to buy sanchez v tebow again. still find SF very possible, if star makes it to 4, i think they’ll bite, he is beyond perfect fit.

  • David J Daniels

    Looking at the NFL Draft Value Chart, the Eagles #4 overall pick would equal in value the Rams #16, #22 and 6th rd picks. I would be all for making that kind of trade. It would put us in a position to grab players like Tavon Austin, possibly Mingo from LSU or anyone who may slip a bit. With the 6th rounder we could hope to find a diamond in the rough player like we found with Bryce Brown last year. BTW, the 6’7 WR from BC that we just signed, Momah, isn’t just a random player with a small chance to make the NFL. He is a STUD of a player who was the best player at the recent BC Pro day….GREAT pickup!!

    • daggolden

      Now if you can do that. Im on board. PR/KR is a major concern on this team. I think it is one of the biggest holes we have. If I have to watch Brown and Boykins bring a kickoff out to the 18 yard line one more time!!!. If I have to watch a Chad Hall and 3 yards and a cloud of dust on PR is unacceptable. Austin cures KR/PR and slot receiver woes immediately.

    • Richard Colton

      Well there it is – the reason every hardcorps NFL fan loves the draft season – hope. In May, every draft pick is a future hall of famer. Hate to be a wet blanket, but hope isnt a course of action, and over-valuing a late round pick because “hey, you never know” is more like gambling than sound strategy. I’d need #16 & 3rd round plus next years number 1 to consider this deal.
      You in? – we can call Jeff Fisher and Howie tonight.

      • GGeagle21

        I despise Jeff Fisher for stealing Janoris Jenkins….wanted us to draft that kid so bad last year

        • Richard Colton

          Why waste a high draft pick on Jenkins when we have DRC and Nnamdi? Why draft Frank Thomas when we already have Ricky Jordan at 1st base? Keep drafting for need and you’ll always have them.

          • GGeagle21

            thus me not willing to pass on Dion because we have Barwin

          • Richard Colton

            Good point. I won’t be upset if we draft Jordan.

      • zphilly

        bryce brown was one of those you-never-know picks and he’s looking pretty solid right now.
        plus, late round picks are made all the more valuable by the changes to rookie salary. namely, you can get a late-round stud for dirt cheap and they cant renegotiate until year 3. Thats a lottery ticket worth taking. The 16th and 22nd in addition to a 6th wouldnt be bad value at all given the relative paucity of top-flight talent in this years class

    • screamingeaglesd

      Yea, im starting to wonder about tavon. I see chip turning the table on special teams this year, as in Now. I think i do that trade

    • cliff henny

      the draft math works, but why would the rams do this trade? if the 4 pick is almost equal to the 9th pick, they could package 16th and 2nd and still hold onto 22nd. every team knows it’s a deep draft, we arent the only ones with this idea. it’s almost more important to figure out why a team would want to move up as opposed to just getting a good trade value.

    • Mr. Magee

      I’m sure Tavon Austin will put up #s in the nfl, but I say no thx…. He screams “gimmick” to me, which is my biggest concern with regard to the current eagles mgmt regime. I fear (note: not predicting) an era with a lot of regular season wins, and no championships…

  • Dewey

    It’s about NEXT year. Next year’s QB cop, highlighted by Mariota and Bridgewater, is truly mouthwatering. Any move back has to be compensated with a 2014 first rounder.

    Jarvis Jones is about as silly as an idea as I’ve heard this month from Eagles’ fans. And that’s saying something. Why not go after a 4-3 LB with problematic neck.

    • GGeagle21

      dont think Jarvis is as silly as it sounds…Im wouldnt take him at 4, but dont act like he is undraftable….VONTAZE BURFICT!!!

      • zphilly

        You realize he went undrafted right? He panned out as an UDFA in a big way but concerns similar to those listed above did indeed keep him from being drafted

        • zphilly

          also not saying that jarvis jones isnt a much better prospect coming out, but i also share the viewpoint that he wouldnt be a good pick for the current eagles roster given scheme and value considerations

          • GGeagle21

            Yeah, this year its more difficult than its ever been for an eagles fan, because we are so in the dark in terms of scheme…Im assuming we are 4-3Under until proven different..I honestly cant imagine not playing a 4-3Under. Its literally the perfect defense for our predators(even if we have too many), Kendricks, Cox…That scheme is tailor made for those players, and it happens to be the defense that our defensive coordinator knows the best, and can put us in the best positions to suceed(every hear that line before? lol)…I cant imagine playing anything other than the Hybrid….and a 4-2-5 on nickle 3rd down situations…Thats what I believe our predominant defense will be..
            I understand that we have recently added some 2gap players…but the two gappers we added, are players that might not even make the roster, so I doubt they will factor in to what scheme we play

          • zphilly

            i’m with you on pretty much everything here, i wish chip would actually give us an idea of what he’s planning on doing with the defense beyond the abstract. acting like he didnt know what the 4-3 under was during owners meeting press time? Come on.

            Only thing: on the jarvis jones point, where would you have him play if we do move to the 4-3 under? As you said, we have an abundance of predators, and with barwin on the other side I just dont see the space for jones in the starting lineup. That said I could see him and Kendricks playing the nickel together, but in terms of value I feel like we’d be investing too much at one position if we went jones early. Additionally, given that his primary skill-set matches what we’ve already got on the roster (namely pass-rushing and ability to drop in coverage (although, the latter we’ve got a bit less in spades currently)), I just dont see the fit.

            Also, I dont know if you were referring to Kendricks and Cox as possibilities at the predator spot or were just saying they’d be a good fit for the 4-3 under. The latter I’d agree with, the former I’d have to strongly disagree.

          • GGeagle21

            sorry, the moment I re-read my post I knew it wouldnt be clear…The 4-3Under creates:
            1) A one on one match up with space on both sides for the 3tec. Basically the weakside Guard will have to block Fletcher Cox on an Island( I dont know how Many Guards are going to be able to stop Cox in two years)

            2)Your Predator will line up outside of Cox and be blocked by the weakside OT(Non TE side), and he is rushing from an angle similar to the wide 9(Our Predators all have the experience for that)….
            so what happens is your NT will line up between the C/and the Guard that isnt blocking Cox), so the Center will block away from the guard thats blocking Cox(Demeco/thumper will help the NT by blowing up that Guard), and the Tackle will block the predator away from the guard thats blocking Cox…so the Guard is left with space to try and block fletcher Cox 1-on-1….ADVANTAGE COX!!!

            3)Now all of that creates a Wall, so that your WIL(Kendricks) can fly around untouched from sideline to sideline making plays.
            Jarvis would yes have to be the SAM (opposite side of the predator), his recent speed was a red flag, because the SAM will have to drop back and cover 30% of the time, although he doesnt seem bad in Coverage on tape..DION JORDAN was literally made to play this SAM role. Having him be able to play behind Barwin as his body grows sounds like an Excellent idea…Then when he takes over for Barwin, Connar can Take over for Demeco(Connar has the size that you want, that Demeco lacks to play Mike THumper in a hybrid and bang it out with a strongside guard all game
            Hope this helped! Tried to make it as clear as I could

          • zphilly

            well the NT would shade the centers shoulder in the 4-3 under not line up between the center and guard but everything you wrote basically spot on.

            on cox, i agree, he’s a guy whose physical ability and proclivity to make plays in the backfield should absolutely allow thrive in the 3-tech.

            and i gotta say I hadnt considered bringing Barwin inside after a couple more years of Ryans. He has the coverage ability and, as you said the size/ run-stopping ability. Jordan would be more appealing in that light. This is predicated on us moving to a 4-3under, which I also think is the best fit for our current personel, but Chip could still throw us a curveball.

            I’m looking forward to the draft almost more to figure out what direction Chip wants to move in as the actual player acquisition.

            Jarvis Jones though I still don’t see being a fit for us no matter if we switch to a 4-3 under or a 3-4. He doesn’t bring the versatility and length that Dion Jordan does (although production-wise Jones obviously blows Jordan out of the water).

          • GGeagle21

            here man…Read my post above and give me some feedback on how I would like howie to work the draft…thanks

          • GGeagle21

            yeah by the end of the draft, regardless of what chip wants to tell us, we should have a pretty good idea of where we are going on Offense..Im so curious to know, are we going to compliment cox with someone who can get pressure like Sharrif,Sheldon,Tank? or is fletcher going to be complimented by a space eater like Hankins, Jesse Williams?

          • southy

            I think we need to qualify this production thing. Do we mean sacks? How often was Jarvis asked to cover? My guess is Jordan has had a lot fewer pass rush opportunities.

            Jordan needs to develop an inside move, yes, but otherwise, the more I look at him the more I think his upside is basically a JPP (maybe not the sack totals, but the freakish physical presence) that can cover a rangy TE in the slot and drop well into a deep zone. That kind of versatility will make everyone on the field look better.

        • GGeagle21

          I know he went undrafted…I also know that I was pounding the table to anyone that would listen this time next year that we should draft him in the 3rd or 4th because he was going to free fall. There are plenty of players who suck in practice, who dont measure out like you would like them to, yet become great NFL players..Why is Jarvis undraftable? Because he ran a slow 40 time? You can be a very effective football player, and beat out better athletes by knowing the game and taking better angles to the ball. Jarvis is going to be a good NFL player. I dont know that he will be great, but he will be a solid pro…I have friends who know him personally, and know his charecter, perserverance and football IQ, and they will all say he has a heart of a Lion, and he is one of those men, that you never bet against succeeding in Life….Its kind of hard to give an oppinion of where I think we should draft him if he is available without knowing who else would be on the board, and more importantly the scheme that we run….If we were to go 4-3Under, he could work…but I would be much more comfortable with Dion…if we were to go straight 3-4, I think Jarvis can really thrive…..
          Vontaze, had a terrible attitude the year he was going to become a draft pick..and he bombed his workouts…he went on to be what, a top 10 rookie last year? If a Kid can play on tape, I dont care what his workouts say….the bigger question I have with Jarvis, is did the play match up to the stats…how many of his sacks were coverage sacks? how many did he create on his own?…how many tackles did he miss. How often was he completely blocked out of a play?….Because he is the leader in Sacks, I think, Im going to go over all the tape of all his sacks, and write a detailed report on each of them.,..I would draft Jarvis at number #4, but I still think the kid can play the game, and will make his mark on whatever team drafts him, inspight of what anyone’s stop watch says

    • screamingeaglesd

      Im with ya, dewey. Ive tried to bring this up on bgn. Could we trade back for a later first, a first nxt yr, and maybe an extra 3rd or fourth? Am i off base?

      • GGeagle21

        Its not off base at all…But if you want to aquire a 1st round pick next year, you need to make sure its from a bad team in a tough division, so that you get the best odds of it being a high pick next year. Bad Teams, usually dont have franchise QB’s…think they dont know how Juicy next years QB class is?………..you arent off base, but the problem is…the compensation that you are lookling to aquire, would mean that you have to trade back ALOT…further you trade back, the better the teams are, the less chance that their first round pick would be good next year

        • screamingeaglesd

          So wouldnt this preclude us from trading with niners? It just seems that max value this year is in top 3-4 pix. Could the rams be our huckleberry?

          • GGeagle21

            Man, I would love the Rams…I dont know that they would give up both 1st’s, because they passed on RG3 to get them, but maybe they give up the 16th pick, a 3rd and a 1st rounder next year..I actually wouldnt worry to much about how late of a 1st round pick you will get, because not many teams will have two first round picks to compete against us in terms of moving up next year to get our QB..starting off your trade up package with two first rounder, trumps everyone elses package.
            The real move to make is: Trade back lets say to the dolphins pick, we draft a player with their 1st round pick, and they also give us a 2nd and a 3rd(because they have two 2nds and two 3rds this year)….SO we would have:#12, two 2nd’s, two 3rd’s, 4th, 5th, three 7ths(or 4 I forget):
            #12: Sheldon Richardson (Unless Star slips that far) DT
            #35: Kyle Long …Compete for starting RG/Backup RT
            #42(From Dolphins) I would trade this pick to the Chiefs or another team that doesnt have a 2nd round pick for a 2014 1st round pick
            #67 Trade back about 6 places and aquire an extra 4th round pick(for example the Bucs who have two 4th round picks).
            #76 (From Bucs) Brandon Williams NT Missouri Southern
            #77 (From Dolphins) Barrett Jones…Back up C/G/T
            #101 Brandon McGee CB Miami
            #126 Brennan Williams RT/LT UNC
            #136 Nick Kasa TE Colorado
            7th rd: Rontez Miles SS/FS Cal(PA)
            7th rd: Dexter McCoil SS Tulsa 6’4 Lays the wood
            7th rd: Some pot head/criminal who is a top talent but charecter concerns cause to fall lol
            Basically this would give us:
            1) An extra 2014 1st round pick(So next year you can move up to get your QB, or if Foles proves to be the guy, you have ammunition to get Clowney)
            2)Offense: T/G/C/TE
            3)Defense: DT/NT/CB/FS/SS
            4)and one top talent who slipped due to being a piece of crap lol
            what do you guys think???

          • GGeagle21

            Let me know how you would feel if Howie worked the draft like this..and let me know what you would do with these draft picks?

          • zphilly

            So the first move to the Rams could be a solid one, although a bit farther than I’d ideally like us to drop in the first. The trade scenario to the Dolphins though, I don’t know that we quite get value there. I’d be hunting for both those 2nd rounders.

            I’m all for moving back in strategic spots where we can gain ammunition later in the draft. I’d jump to trade one of the hypothetical 3 2nd rounders we’d have following this Dolphins trade for a 2014 first but thats obviously requisite on someone being willing to give up that pick.

            I’m guessing NFL teams, like us, see those top picks next year as being extraordinarily valuable given the potential class, and will be pretty tight-fisted when it comes to giving up next year firsts. If the opportunity arises though, I’d be thrilled if we could pull off getting another 1st in 2014.

            I also like the idea of trading back later to pick up a 4th. We’ve had success there in the past, and this years crop looks to me like the 4th round could offer good value.

          • GGeagle21

            because next years picks look so valuable, I think the play is gaining an extra 2nd round pick, and flipping it to Andy Reid who doesnt have a 2nd round pick this year,for next years first round pick. Andy could agree with this simply because he inheritted 7 probowlers, got a QB, and added all kinds of pieces. you know Andy in his head is thinking he is this genius who will turn KC around so there first round pick wont be high anyway next year, and he might try to load up this year(which is what he looks like he is trying to do in FA)….but yeah, for some reason the thought of getting both the dolphins second round picks didnt occur to me…Bucs and Dolphins have multiple picks in the later rounds and both might want to jump cleveland and Detroit for Milner

          • Gobirds1

            your logic is very flawed. No team is going to give up a 1st round in 2014 mid 2nd round this year. Even if we get two 1st rounders next year the top 5 picks are going to be shitty teams with no QB, so would the trade and get one of next year’s stud QBs.

    • MJB

      If last year did show us 1 thing its QB’s can regress or look less spectacular….. Matt Barkley. Bridgewater may look great now but who knows what next year brings.

      • GGeagle21

        I hear this all the time…so because Barkley flopped its ok to assume that Bridgewater, Boyd, Mariotta, Johnny Football are all going to flop next year? How do we know they dont improve exponentially next year…they are all going to go the barkley route?…Ok, so let me rephrase, this years QB crop is garbage, and next years has the potential to be great..better? lol

        • MJB

          All i was pointing out was that a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. This years crop is not good. Bridgewater is the best out of next years but the rest NEED this season to make some significant steps. Jonny FB is like Frost from Nebraska years back. He’s a great athlete, playing QB. Maybe this year he shows otherwise but last year he just ran around and made plays. He wasn’t orchestrating an offense.

  • Warhound

    Re Draft value: Eagles #4 Pick = 1,800
    The Titans have #s 10 and 40, combined = 1,800
    The Jets have #s 9 and 39, comb = 1,860 (60 = 21st pick of rnd 4)
    The Chargers have picks #8 and #45, value = 1,850 (50 = 26th pick of rnd 4)
    Note 1st pick = 3,000 = 4th and 12th picks (1,800 and 1,200)
    First Pick of rnds 2= 580, 3= 265, 4= 112, 5= 43, 6= 28, 7= 15, pick #224= 3pnts

    • Richard Colton

      Except the #2 and #3 picks belong to the Jags and Raiders, two historically dimwitted franchises. So that has to add a few hundred value points to pick four…right? The chart is more of a guide anyway. It’s market dependent. Look what the #2 pick netted last year compared to its value this year.

      • GGeagle21

        Im literally praying every night that the Jags take Geno smith! Because I worry about Gus Bradley pounding the table for Dion all day until he gets his wish..Gus Bradley believes in team defense, so it worries me that he might find Dion irresistable…although, they do need a OT opposite of Eugene, they could use help on the Dline, and hopefully, Gus Bradley will value finding his predator before he starts looking for his sam. I actually like the new Front Offices of the Jags and Raiders…I give them a chance of no longer being dumb franchises…Im just hoping the 1st 3 picks in the draft are:
        1)Joekel
        2)Fisher
        3)Geno

        • GGeagle21

          correction: Gus Bradleyt believes in defensive speed

        • Richard Colton

          It could very well go that way. You like OLB Jordan at 4, I like OT Fisher. I think where we can agree is that the birds shouldn’t outsmart themselves by trading down.

          • zphilly

            disagree strongly, stay put if there isnt good value in trading down but I can’t see why we’d be opposed to dropping a bit in order to pick up picks in this years deep class or trade-up ammunition in next years top-heavy one.

          • Richard Colton

            because the combination of players you get at 16 and 22 probably won’t be as good as the one guy you get at 4. That’s the history of the draft. Your strategy works because you assume you can get a JJ Watt at #16, Haloti Ngata at #22 and Bryce Brown in round 6.

          • Richard Colton

            So who would you rather have today? Matt Kalil (4) or Quenton Coples (16) and Brandon Weedon (22)? Or we could use this year’s players: Eric Fisher or Jarvis Jones and EJ Manuel?

          • zphilly

            Using specific player examples from individual drafts is an exercise in futility. Especially when you get the pick placement wrong as you did below: JJ was 11th or 12th I believe, Brown was a 7th, and Haloti was 12th overall. I could just as easily say would you rather have Aaron Curry (4th) or Brian Cushing (15th) and Percy Harvin (22nd).

            Or in this years players: Geno Smith or Eric Fisher and Kenny Vaccaro. These sort of hypotheticals don’t really serve a purpose.

            I don’t think there is any certainty of obtaining a star position even at the top of THIS YEARS draft, and this uncertainty is precisely what make me want us to trade down and accumulate more “lottery tickets” so to speak (provided we get good value of course)

          • Richard Colton

            I’m never going to win this argument with you because you see the NFL draft as a total crap shoot. In April, all of the players are the same, so of course having two late round pics is the better than one high round pick. If you look at the history of the draft (and excepting the most difficult position to forecast – QB) a team has a better chance of getting one great player with a top five pick than getting one great player with two mid/late first round picks.
            It’s ok if we look at it like it’s a lottery – but I need Howie and Chip to be smarter than that. Kenny Vaccaro and Tavon Austin at #16 & #22 might be the next Brian Dawkins and DeSean Jackson and Fisher at #4 could be the next Robert Gallery. But if you go that way, it doesn’t make you right, it makes you lucky.

          • JofreyRice

            Agree with you here. I think fans often times make an error in thinking of the draft or free agency process purely as a crap shoot–because to most of us, that’s what it is. Later, they use that mischaracterization to defend the organization when they’ve made choices that haven’t panned out, saying that this player was “thought to be” a good addition. What’s missed is that making the right decisions real-time with the high picks more often than not, is exactly what being a GM is about.

            It’s not a crap shoot. Who you select is a function of hundreds of hours of work in the scouting department and the decision making process of how that work is analyzed and evaluated by the front office. They aren’t throwing darts at a board.

            If you have repeated failures high in the draft, then you need to take a hard look at the GM. It’s really as simple as that.

          • GGEagle21

            yeah, I dont like the crap shoot crap either..Alot of work goes into the draft. Some draft classes are better than others, but every single draft class provides tons of good NFL players…The tricky part is figuring out which are the ballers, and which are the frauds. Each draft will provide atleast 60 good NFL players that can help teams improve, the problem is that these 60 players wont ever be the first 60 players drafted…These 60 players will be scattered between 7 rounds, and you can see numerous bust get taken in between stud selections…The teams that have the best handle on the overall big board, help themselves the most…but for every BUST you chose, there is HELP that can be had on the board…the trick is who can differentiate the studs from the busts the best

          • JofreyRice

            And the best guys/organizations are still wrong pretty often; look at the 49ers with the WR they drafted in the first last year, that didn’t even see the field (AJ Jenkins, I think?). It’s really not about being right all the time, it’s about being right more often than not, and at least finding solid starters with your picks. I don’t think we’ve had that situation in Philly for awhile.

          • GGeagle21

            agreed.. Lets face the facts, real ELITE big name players, dont hit FA. They get extended or Tagged. If there is an older Big Name guy on the market, their is a good chance it because his former team recognizes that he is on a decline…So the culmination of years of missing on draft picks, results in Horrible ST, bad Depth on the roster, and you forcing to try and go after the Nnamdi’s of Free agency, that more times than not, end up not being half worth, what you are paying them. You can never be a serious team by missing on a crazy amount of draft picks…Every single year you should come away from the draft with atleast 2 IMPACT starters..If you bust on a rd 1, or rd 2 pick, then you fail!…1st and 2nd round should be a given(when talking about a good draft), but rounds 3-5 arent exactly chopped liver picks. Im sure half of the hall of fame probably came from rounds 3-5…. Of course, its never this easy…but like you said, the best organizations get it right in rounds 1-2 more times than not…………THIS IS THE YEAR, we need to take advantage of the draft! There isnt another organization, who has more coaches on the staff at this time, that are as familiar with so many of these prospects the way our coaching staff is..Between coaches from Oregon and Alabama alone, Im sure they tried to recruit half of the top prospects. This draft is where having college coaches is an advantage…3 years from now, our coaches wont know any of the kids in college…so we really need to make the most of this the next two years, and have two fantastic drafts! we been through enough dark ages in the draft…last years was great! 2 more drafts like that, and we will be going places

          • http://twitter.com/Lez215 Dutch

            Don’t sleep on Lane Johnson, he’s the better athlete. If there is a trade down, I would prefer a player that is going to be serviceable for years to come. Historically, I’ve not been a fan of the Eagles draft decisions, up until Fletcher Cox. They made out really well with Pittsburgh players, McCoy and Lewis, although for some reason they buried Lewis. I don’t understand how they allowed players in their back yard to slip through, i.e Ray Rice of Rutgers and Flacco of Delaware. Ozzie Newsome didn’t sleep on local talent.

          • GGeagle21

            Love Lane, he is actually my favorite…but if the cardinals dont move up for Fish or Joekel, Im convinced they take him at 7, so if we trade back to the 10-13 range, my guess is that our options are Sheldon, Xavier, Trufant, Jarvis, Star(if we get lucky and he falls)

        • zphilly

          ouch, that would obliterate our trade-down value though.

          • GGeagle21

            not neccessarily…I wouldnt want to trade back that far…I wouldnt mind the Bucs, Dolphins range who could try to Jump Detroit and Cleveland for Milner, or Chargers who could want the OT…See my post closer to the top, I gave a decent scenario…..I believe in Dion, If Im Howie, and the Jags take him at 2, Im on ther Phone trading down…In the 10-13 range.., STAR could fall to you..If not you have Sheldon Richardson, Trufant, Jonathon Cooper(who is probably better for chip kelly than Warmack)…. and heck, if you trade back to 13, and you dont like the players at the top of your board, you trade back another 6 picks, take a Jonathon Cyprien ,Tank Carradine , or TE/WR type while you accumilated more picks…I always talk about having to draft a defender in rd 1…but if we trade back, and aquire more 2nd and 3rd round picks, that can be used to draft defenders, than I dont care who we draft with the first round pick..OT, Reciever, whatever

      • zphilly

        Yeah I dislike the chart as anything more than a rough barometer of value. The rookie salary slotting and taking away the ability of rookies to renegotiate before the 3rd year has to be taken into consideration too in any decent draft chart. I also think that spreading the draft over 3 days has made the top picks in each individual day considerably more valuable. if you look at the players recently taken in the top 10 of the 2nd round in the past few years, you can see that those picks are arguably more valuable even than late 1st rounders.
        Kaeps, Sheard, Dalton, and Gronk are just a few examples

    • jabostick

      I always thought the Jets might make the most sense. If they trade Revis (to the Bucs, for example) and are looking to replace him with Millner. The Jets will (presumably) get some picks out of a Revis so they might be more apt to deal. From the Birds’ perspective, moving a couple of spots back and then having two picks near the top of the second (and that day in between rounds to work the phones) would be a great situation to be in.

  • GGeagle21

    If the dolphins are dumb enough to give us 1st, 2nd and a 3rd round pick for the 4th, so that they can go get Millner, Id gladly do it, and take Star, Jarvis, Sheldon or Desmond Trufant, who I would draft ahead of Millner anyway….Dolphins have two 2nd’s and two 3rd, and they are doing all the splash moves to try and get a stadium….I would take the vikings two first round picks, and a 4th if they want to move up!

    • GGeagle21

      I have been on a personal crusade trying to tell the world what a Fraudulent top 5 pick Millner is…Just read that there is a serious difference between the way that draft Mockers, and NFL personel people view Dee Millner…I knew this in my head, but its nice to finally start seeing some re-enforcement

  • GGeagle21

    If Dion is off the board at 4, trade back to the chargers or Dolphins and a player that you probably considered at 4, will still fall to you

  • GGeagle21

    i love how everyone acts as if Johnny Football is too small. Funny cause RG3 is only an inch taller, and 10lbs heavier than Johnny Football. I want nothing to do with Mariotta…Bridgewater, Boyd, Manziel are the QBs I would target….then again, Hopefully Foles proves to be a franchise QB, and next year we can focus and trading up for Jadeveon Clowney, or Jake Mathews….Then again, the next Gronk, from Washington state will come out next year too

    • Gobirds1

      You can’t compare college roster listed height and weight with combine actual measurements. RGIII was 6’2″ 223 and Johnny Football will be lucky if he is 6’0″ 200. Plus RGIII has long arms so his release point is 6-8″ inches higher. Haven’t you noticed Vick’s problems seeing the field over the line and passes getting blocked in his face. Manziel is much more like Vicks size than RGIII.

      • GGeagle21

        I wont argue that….but I can tell you that Johnny is significantly bigger than Wilson and Brees were. I just think Johnny is bigger than many people think

  • http://www.facebook.com/todd.orange.1 Todd Orange

    I took a look at the Trade Value Chart…St. Louis’ 16 and 22nd picks value out only 20points less than the 4th pick. The trick is getting them interested in a top 5 talent.

  • George

    I would consider taking the Jets 1this and next year for our 1 and foles. MAYBE I would also do this years 2 and next year 1 for 1 and foles. We would get bridgewater, mariota, mainzel(if any of them come out, if not clowney) good value, since the jets will be awful and rex seems hell bent on trying to win this year

    • Richard Colton

      #4 for for #9 and next year’s #1? Considering how bad the Jets are?!? The only way Howie pulls off that deal is with a ski mask. I guess the Jets are targeting Geno Smith in your scenario, but then why would they want Foles? That would be great for us, but unlikely.

      • George

        It is a prove it year for rex. He NEEDS to win. and, if Foles pans out behind a half-decent o-line, both teams win. A first round pick next year is like a two next year, so it would be like #4 and Foles for #9 and a high 2. This works for both teams, and the jets could get somebody like a dee miliner, trade revis, and then heve 2 first rounders this year. Or a #1, 2#2′s, and a #1 next year anyway. AND they could get their guy at QB if Marty thinks foles is a franchise guy. They could also get a Dion, and Get a good pass rusher for rex’s 3-4 defense. At this spot, the eagles could grap lane johnson, who fits the oregon offense that seems more and more probobale, or they could grab a warmack or cooper to replace Watkins. I think that it benefits both teams

  • MJB

    I would love Tavon Austin on this team. But it seems too much of a luxury pick. OT or DT seem to be the most needed positions. Unless we trade way back and grab a S that will prob be there at our second pick.

  • Newman

    I say we trade back get another 2nd round pick. That will allow us to get a solid NT or OLB in the 1st. Then in the 2nd get Margus Hunt and EJ Manuel .

    • cliff henny

      and every other team in top ten is saying the same thing, trade back, pick up extra picks. if the talent level is equal from 4-12,as generally agreed, why would a team pay us a premiun to get to 4? if a team is eyeing cb, a tradeup wont be pressing till one is gone. same with tackle, if they feel johnson, fisher are equal(joeckel to kc), until one is gone, they can wait. i’m 1000% for trading back, but 4 may cost too much, might serve better to be at 8-10. team i constantly come back to is SF, they have to package picks, gamble is well liked, they are very close and have assets to give. maybe minnesota, if they value Geno, cause they are a good qb away from contending possibly, in their eyes.

  • Anon

    Realistically, why trade back? We pick the best OT in this year’s first round. If we don’t have a performing QB next year we’ll still have a high first round pick next year. If we do find a way to step up w/ someone that we have then we can just pick the best QB left in the latter half of the first round.