Eagles Draft Watch: What Would No. 4 Get You?

As Sheil detailed earlier, the Eagles have an 8.6 percent chance to grab the No. 1 overall pick in April’s draft, per Football Outsiders, and nearly a 50 percent chance to be in the top 5.

If the season ended today, the Eagles would have the fourth pick. What exactly would that get them? We looked at all the NFL drafts since 2000 to see if they hold any answers. Here is a look at what teams have done with that fourth pick over the last 13 seasons:

2012: OT Matt Kalil, Vikings
2011: WR A.J. Green, Bengals
2010:  OT Trent Williams, Redskins
2009: LB Aaron Curry, Seahawks
2008: RB Darren McFadden, Raiders
2007: DE Gaines Adams, Bucs
2006: OT D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Jets
2005: RB Cedric Benson, Bears
2004: QB Phillip Rivers, Giants (traded to Chargers)
2003: DT Dewayne Robertson, Jets
2002: OT Mike Williams, Bills
2001: DE Justin Smith, Bengals
2000: WR Peter Warrick, Bengals

As you can see, there have been some nice hits (Rivers, Green), some misses (Curry) and a few in-between (McFadden, Benson).

Offensive tackle has been a fairly popular pick here and has generally worked out well for the team in question, save the Bills in ’02 with Williams. But overall, a decent success rate.

Smith, selected by the Bengals in ’01, is still going strong with the Niners in his 12th NFL season.

The 2013 draft is not considered to be a particularly star-studded one, which of course also needs to be factored in.

Next up, a look at who the draftniks see going fourth overall in the upcoming draft:

CBS: DE/OLB Demontre Moore, Texas A&M
Walter Football: OT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M
Scouts, Inc.: G Chance Warmack, Alabama
Mel Kiper: Demontre Moore
Todd McShay: Chance Warmack
MyNFLDraft: DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
Chris Steuber: WR Keenan Allen, Cal

It is early, but just a sample of names to keep in mind.

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  • Eric Weaver

    I’d want Jarvis jones if he’s available. He’s not as impressive as Von miller, but this d needs a dynamic playmaker that can move all around the front 7.

    • 1972

      jones is a good player, but i dont like what i saw out of him against top competiton(Bama, Florida) hes kind of a chicken with his head cut off out there.. alot of sacks and hurries but i rarely see him play the run

      • johngiam

        kind of think he is worthless if you dont switch to a 3-4. If you do, I dont see how you can pass him up. He is that freak JPP type of this draft class, but worthless unless you play a 3-4

  • 1972

    joeckel , lotuelei, Teo in that order

    • Jeppe Elmelund van Ee

      Depending on what state Peters is in, I want Lotulelei, Joeckel or best OLB if we switch to 3-4

      • JohnGiam

        My wish list, Teo, or Star in that order. If we switch to a 3-4, THEN WE HAVE TO FIND A WAY TO GET JARVIS. If we stay 4-3, get me Teo or star!

  • The Guru

    I might even consider trading down….none of the talent @ 4 is “elite”. This team needs so much help that trading down and picking up more players is probably the best option. Won’t be popular, but how else do you fill an entire secondary, TE, LB, and o-line?

    • theycallmerob

      I agree with you, save for one caveat…I can’t help but hope that the Eagles take either Joeckel or Te’o with that pick if available. They both look like studs at need positions. Otherwise, trade down (there’s plenty of DL and secondary depth in later rounds).

      • JohnGiam

        im sorry, I KNOW Jockel will be a nice starter in this league, but I dont not envision him a sure shot pro bowler like Tren Williams or Khalil. I view him a class slightly below those guys. I also happen to believe that next year our Oline will be fine, with these young players getting experience, and all the starters coming back. I also happen to believe the offense is light years ahead of the defense, and the free agent, veteran mercinary route hasnt worked in FA…so I really want to build a young defense thru the draft. Would be thrilled to bring Manti’s freak cover skills and intangibles to our soft defense. Wouldnt mind Star Latuleili…keep in mind we dont know who the next coach will be. If the next coach we switch to a 3-4, we really need to overhaul the roster…and in that case, I cant see how we could pass up on Jarvis Jones..or even Demontre.

    • xlGmanlx

      You don’t, you draft best player available, even though all of it is a crap shoot. If you draft a position of strength, then flip it to a team with needs. That’s what the better franchises are doing. See Detroit/Megatron (not that detroit is elite, but they made the right call then)

      • The Guru

        Disagree. Stockpiling picks and players is the best way to re-build quickly. More players you have, the more chances you hit big.

        • xlGmanlx

          i think if Teo is within reach, you make that trade happen. Otherwise, if the value isn’t there at 1-5, then I agree to a certain extent. But that is only if you draft with those other picks best player available. When you draft for need, you have a bunch of JJ, Kurt Coleman, Sapp, Clayton’s, etc on the roster

          • The Guru

            None of those guys fit “draft for need”….but Danny Watkins, Nate Allen, and Brandon Graham are draft for need players. I do agree T’eo would be my pick….start him at SAM, move Kendricks to his natural WILL, and then when Ryans is done, you move T’eo to middle.

          • xlGmanlx

            If you get into top 5, consensus is Teo is top five talent, two birds one stone.

  • http://twitter.com/irish9462 Harry McCann

    Warmack would be a good pick. He is the best guard to come out in years and he has dominated people every game. I think we could trade down and get him though.

    • JohnGiam

      yeah, it would be a big mistake to get him in the top 10. I think he can still be had in the 14-18 range. Just think back to last year, the italian kid, cant think of his name. He was every bit the player/prospect that Chance is…yet he came off the board late in rd 1! He would definitely help us, but I think we need a serious infusion of young talent on the defense…dont want to take away any of the first 3 rounds picks from the defense
      I will say that if along the way..you have a chance to get an Aj Green, Julio Jones type reciever..YOU GO GET HIM (but I dont think that prospect is available in this draft)! if its a real game changer on offense, then Im ok with it…but Much prefer going defense. its what really wins championships and keeps you in tough games.

      • fastnbulbous

        David DeCastro. he blew out his knee and didn’t play a down. But ya, he’s should have a nice career.

        • johngiam

          yeah thats him. thanks..Chance will drop just like he did

    • The Guru

      Never draft an interior lineman in the top 15.

  • Sensei

    As I think the biggest needs are in the secondary and there is no value taking a player from those positions that high(yet) trading down could be an option I would like Star, Joeckel, or Teo at a pick that high I just don’t know that those are the biggest need positions so if trading down can get more picks I’m reluctantly for it

    • JohnGiam

      screw need. If you draft in the top 5, Get me a pro bowl WHATEVER!

      • JohnGiam

        or someone that will bring strong intagibles. A leader..someone that can grow into someone that will hold the unit accountable, and make teamates better..usually that goes hand and hand with being a pro bowler…
        Hopefully Brandon Graham and Vinny Curry can use these next 4 games, to grow and prove that we dont need to invest in anymore defensive ends

        Would also love to find a desruptive Force/freak like a Caleaus Cambell or a JJ Watts type to pair with Fletcher Cox moving forward…Can Star Latuleili become that Freakish Force? curious to hear you guys thoughts on him!

    • dislikedisqus

      Agree with this. Team can get by on offense with what it has. Need several players on D. A trade down may make sense. But at every pick, they should pick either the best pass rusher or best pass defender.

    • xlGmanlx

      When you draft that high, you owe it to yourself and organization to draft the best player available. We haven’t scored on a top 5 pick since 5.

  • Alex

    Any chance jarvis jones turns in to a DE in a 4-3?

  • xlGmanlx

    It would be great to pick up a franchise LT in the draft. But I hope they learned their lesson and will continue to draft best player available. It has served them will this year and the rookies might turn a corner with the next administration. Regardless, the next head coach is probably #1 priority for the rest of the season, well one a. One b is seeing what you have with Nick Foles.

  • maka makanani

    Considering the other 3 teams ahead of us, if they’re going offensively, then I would say Manti Te’o as the BPA. Other than that, get some extra picks moving out of the top 10.

    BUT…..should Vick NOT be an Eagle any longer, we can’t have the combo of Foles and Edwards. We need stability at this QB position, I’m fine keeping Edwards at No.3. As being the 4th pick, we have got to grab a QB, to back up Foles or Foles being a viable backup. I’m not interested in veteran QB’s, because of what this year’s QB class performance have shown. I believe in drafting a QB and not let him lose any game time, coming out of college to keep in sync with his attributes.

    After our first 4 games, I couldn’t understand why AR didn’t think to alternate between Vick and Foles, at a time when we were giving up turnovers. If your starter isn’t pulling in numbers, then it would be wise to start a QB tandem and see how much of a progression this tandem does. I might surmised, that we could have had more wins and a possible playoff contender.

    If Vick remains in midnight green, most likely we can go BPA, or trade out of the top 10 for some extra picks, go BPA first 2 rounds. The rest of the rounds to cover holes and add backups/starters. Hopefully, find a gem in the undrafted free agents. We also need to solidify the Special Team unit, maybe a better young experience coach, that knows how to set up the personnels.