What the QB Class Tells Us About Foles

Five of the six quarterbacks selected before Nick Foles in the 2012 draft are currently in starting roles. Only Brock Osweiler, a second-round pick by Denver, has yet to see meaningful action this year. And with Peyton Manning ahead of him, no one can hold it against the 6-7  QB out of Arizona State.

With Foles poised to make his first start, 19 percent of the teams in the NFL will be guided by rookies at quarterback this week. What are the chances that Foles is successful?

Let’s take a look at how his classmates have done so far on the NFL level:

 

 
Andrew Luck
RGIII
Ryan Tannehill
Brandon Weeden
Russell WIlson
Drafted1st overall (1)2nd overall (1)8th overall (1)22nd overall (1)75th overall (3)
Team record6-33-64-52-76-4
Completion %57.565.658.955.162.1
TD1085915
INT939128
QB Rating79.193.973.267.990.5

 

A couple things to take into account here: Four of the five signal-callers are first-rounders. That does not guarantee greater success, but the odds are more in your favor.

On the bright side, Russell Wilson was taken just 13 slots in front of Foles and is doing well in Seattle. He has five more touchdown passes on the year than Luck and is second in completion percentage and quarterback rating to only RGIII. Just as importantly, his team has a winning record.

Andy Reid was actually pretty high on Wilson. If the draft had fallen a little differently, he could have very well ended up in Philadelphia.

Instead, the Eagles wound up selecting Foles with the 88th overall pick. On Sunday, Foles gets a chance to start proving that he belongs. Fittingly enough, he’ll make his first start against another member of the 2012 fraternity in RGIII.

The quarterback failure rate in the NFL is high and each player and situation is unique unto itself. Just think Manning-Ryan Leaf.

That said, Eagles fans can at least find a little hope in the fact that, while Foles is a green third-rounder, he is a part of a class that is holding its own for the most part in Year One.

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  • The Guru

    Precisely why you give Foles 7 more games as an audition. If he proves, he can play and he’s worth building around, then he’s your QB next year. If he’s not, then you draft Matt Barkley and move on.

    • usmcnole

      Matt Barkley is way overrated.

      • The Guru

        He would have gone # 2 over RGIII….and how would you know how good he is with Lane Kiffin. Besides, where else are you going to find a QB?

    • peteike

      we wont be in position to get Barkley unless they do a trade up. Hes going real early, prob KC or Jags. Im guessing hes KCs future QB.

  • Brent E. Sulecki

    lets just trade the house for geno smith…go big or go home

    • dig it

      We’ve had running QBs and they’ve not been successful. Eagles need a traditional quarterback.
      Besides Smith is over hyped

      • JofreyRice

        He’s really not a running QB. He looks to pass first, though he can take off. He’s got about 2x the attempts of rushes that a real pocket dinker-and-dunker like Barkley’s got. Compare Smith to a “running QB” like Klein or Denard Robinson, and you see that he takes off about 1/3 as often.

        I think the only reason Smith is overhyped, if he is, is that the QB class is so weak. He came out of the gate really hot, and has faded a bit since.

        My problem with Smith is his field vision & awareness at times. I think he plays within Holgorsen’s system, and is a little too reliant on the 1st read being there, whether it actually is, or not. Sometimes I think he can lock in on a guy and miss other guys that might be running free. He needs to develop his ability to anticipate receivers breaking open, which is something neither McNabb nor Vick were very good at–they were “see it, throw it” guys. Kolb had that ability, but was lacking enough in other areas that it really didn’t matter.

        He’s not at the level of Luck or RG3, IMO, but looks like the best QB of a mediocre class.

        • Pomo

          I think Geno and WVU have faded because they lost their shot at a National Title. Buzzkill.

      • Pomo

        Wrong. Rushing Stats since 2009:
        2012 ATT: 53 Yds: 83 Avg: 1.6
        2011 ATT: 56 Yds: -33 Avg: -0.6
        2010 ATT: 106 Yds: 217 Avg:2.0
        2009 ATT: 17 Yds: Avg: 0.4

        He’s either a really bad running QB or you’re wrong (or racist).
        I think you can figure this one out.

  • JofreyRice

    This was the list that Vick compares unfavorably to, right?

    I think saying too much about rookie QBs can be a little dangerous. I remember Peyton’s first year in Indy, throwing a ton of interceptions at the worst times and looking all confused on the sidelines with his helmet off and bong-zits around his mouth.

    Tannehill’s numbers are bad, but if you look at the skills he’s showing, it’s a brighter picture for the Dolphins franchise. Same thing with Luck. Though RG3 is putting up the best numbers, I think Shannahan is being a bit stupid with the way he’s running him out to absorb punishment.

    Unless the guy is an absolute train-wreck, it takes time and film to assess what these guys can be. I think Foles is going to be the starter next season regardless, but the more film, and more game experience, the better.

  • JettMartinez

    “What does the 2012 QB draft class tell us about Foles?” Absolutely nothing other than those teams thought more highly of the guy they drafted. Their relative success has no bearing on Foles’ performance. Proximity is not causality. And that’s not a knock on Foles. I think he’ll do well if the O Line gives him a chance.

    • daggolden

      He has to deal with the oline the same way Vick did. No excuses. Vick had no chance so thats what Foles must deal with.

      • JohnGiam

        no one is making excuses for foles, but keep it real! the dallas game, although not a pretty performance, it was a manageable performance…in what I mean is that he managed to not get killed, and didnt let it turn into a disaster, which considering the circumstances, was great to see. We do realize that foles hadent seen a rep since august right? you take any of the qb’s this year, luck, rg3, wilson, tanahill…and had none of them gotten reps since the preseason, and thrown into that game, I doubt any would have played signififcantly better then foles. you cant judge foles in a bad light after the dallas game..I was actually pleased. I think its a great sign that it wasnt a disaster, that it could have easily been throwing a rookie who hasnt played in 3 months, into a rivalry game with that putrid Oline. I liked what I saw, considering everything…what I really liked was that when it was time for foles to go into the game, many of his teamates were really PUMPED up, seemed to believe in him and have his back. To me, that told me more then anything that happened on the field on sunday! Folesy will beat the skins this week!

  • Johnny_Pizzle

    Having Nick Foles starting the remainder of the games for the Eagles will be the best things the current Eagles brass can hope for. The remaining games will either make or break his chances of starting for the Eagles in the future. If he fails, Eagles know he will be their next Kafka and look to the first round for a QB. If he succeeds they know they will have addressed the QB situation for the next few years to come.

  • daggolden

    It might not matter what Foles does .W ho is making the decision? the fans Audition for who? If Im Bill Cowher Im making all the decisions. I may come in here and say hmmm, Eli Manning, RGIII, Tony Romo, and Im rolling out Nick Foles? Nah aint happening. I want my own guy in here. The new offensive coordinator and coach might not be high on Foles and want to bring in thier guy.

  • daggolden

    “A couple things to take into account here: Four of the five signal-callers are first-rounders. That does not guarantee greater success, BUT THE ODDS ARE MORE IN YOUR FAVOR”. Exactly my point. 1st round picks are hardly guarentees. i would imagine later round picks chances of suceeding decrease 5 x as much. There is a Tom Brady once every 50 years. But the ceiling is usually a Ryan Fitzpatrick if your lucky.