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Philadelphia Magazine

How Matt Lauer Is Wrecking the Philly Real Estate Market

One of the Main Line’s star realtors has a bone to pick with the media

By Lavinia Smerconish

Lavinia Smerconish. Photograph by Steve Belkowitz
In any market, people are interested in the value of their home. But I’ve been in real estate for 24 years, and today, the intensity of interest in the market is unprecedented. It’s gotten so I can’t go anywhere on the Main Line without being buttonholed by some panicked acquaintance worried about the so-called “real estate crisis.” I’ve fielded inquiries over dinner at the Guard House in Gladwyne, in the Cosi coffee line in Bryn Mawr, in the frozen foods section at the Genuardi’s in Radnor, and at the movies in Edgmont.

I tell the curious what I know: Yes, the Main Line market has indeed softened, but it’s a far cry from any crisis. The softening has nothing directly to do with the sub-prime market, or the availability of quality real estate or mortgage money. The market forces in effect here are Matt Lauer, Diane Sawyer, Ann Curry and their ilk. Of course, not everyone in the media has nefarious motives. (I should know; I’m married to a member of their ranks.) But the media-driven perception of what’s going on in the marketplace has me concerned.

Let me explain. The din of the network morning shows fill all of our kitchens as we hurry the kids off to school or otherwise begin our day. Inevitably, we see a plethora of so-called market experts on TV telling us the industry is in decline and the worst is yet to come. No doubt this drives ratings. But on the Main Line, there’s no sub-prime failure to speak of, and we haven’t created a real estate bubble so large as to precipitate a burst. So why are we soft? Because we believe what we see on TV. I can’t imagine anyone changing the channel while being told that the greatest investment he or she will make in a lifetime is in jeopardy. There are never any exceptions offered. It’s a blanket prognostication for the country, overlooking the deviations, such as the Philadelphia suburbs.

The minute they say it, we’re on our way to a self-fulfilling prophecy. First, there are the buyers. They hear about the decline in the market and believe it must be the case everywhere. They certainly don’t want to appear foolish or unsophisticated by purchasing a home at anything close to an asking price, no matter how reasonable that asking price may be. So they either make ridiculously lowball offers, or stay home and wait for a complete bottoming-out — or until those same national experts tell them the water is warm enough to jump in again. Sellers, meanwhile, are frustrated about the absence of buyers. They try the usual array of staging, sprucing-up, painting and polishing. And when that fails, they bury St. Joseph in the yard. Finally, they significantly drop their asking price to get the attention of the few buyers who have to move due to life circumstances — ­relocations and new babies and the like.

Prices continue to drop, but because there’s been no public pronouncement that the market has recovered, homes languish on the market while buyers wait for the proverbial bottom to fall out, even though there are great values to be had. We have good inventory on the Main Line; interest rates are at some of the lowest points they’ve been in years; there’s still no shortage of mortgage money, and even jumbo mortgages are available at no penalty to qualified buyers. Sellers remain welcoming, but buyers are stuck in a holding pattern, waiting, waiting, waiting.

They’re waiting for clearance. Not from someone like me, who knows their streets and deals with the market forces in their community every single day. No, they won’t get in the game until somebody deemed a market expert, sitting in a TV studio far away, looks into a camera and tells them the crisis that never existed in their community has ended.

And where in the world is Matt Lauer then? On to the next big story.

Lavinia Smerconish is a Main Line native and a 15-year real estate agent with Prudential Fox & Roach.

Originally published in Philadelphia magazine, March 2008

 
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User comments

Just slightly self serving...
Mar. 2, 2008 at 10:12 AM
Posted by Anonymous
While I don't feel that Greater Philadelphia has fared as bad as other areas, this article is sort of self serving fluff. Let’s look at some numbers. Montco has a total population of approximately 800,000. Lower Merion (part of the impervious Main Line) has about 61,000 residents or 7.6% of total population. Using the Philly Mag from February of 2007 (The Have Mores, pg. 88), more than half of the families on the main line earn $150,000 or less annually, yet the majority of homes cost far more than $400,000, making home purchases out of whack with fundamentals. Add the luxury car payment, private school, tutoring, and other Main Line need to the mix, and people are in over their heads. Let’s fess up and admit that most of Philly is trying to keep up with the Joneses, which is a dangerous game to play. While the Main Line may not be hit too hard, one look at the Sunday real estate listings tells a different story. Big incentives on new homes, the same open houses every week, an
^^^Finished From Above
Mar. 2, 2008 at 10:37 AM
Posted by Anonymous
...Big incentives on new homes, the same open houses every week, and double the days on market all speak to the fact that Greater Philly is not just the Main Line.
response to anonymous
Mar. 4, 2008 at 10:46 AM
Posted by Mark Grunwald
You started by saying "you don't feel...". That's the problem. People are basing their decisions on what they feel and not the facts. The fact is that the Philly market is doing much better than a lot of the country. In some areas of the Philly market home prices actually increased slightly in 2007. If someone chooses to live in L. Merion or anywhere else on the Main Line they are not mandated to buy a luxury car, attend private school or hire a tudor. The fact is that many people live on the Main Line so their children can attend highly regarded public shcools for free. Houses are taking longer (than two years ago)to sell because, as Lavinia explained, buyers are waiting for the media to tell them it's now safe to buy a house. Builders have inventory they need to sell so they are putting their houses on sale. If Sears has a 25% off everything sale do people avoid the sale for fear that tomorrow or next week everything might be 30% off? A lot of houses are "on sale" so now is
finish response to anonymous
Mar. 4, 2008 at 7:35 PM
Posted by Mark Grunwald
a really good time to buy a house. The "experts" can't tell you when the bottom of the market will be, and they can't tell you when it is. They can only tell you when it was. By then house prices are on the way up again.
2009 buyer
Mar. 5, 2008 at 8:25 AM
Posted by NJ Patient
I will be taking my NYC cash and moving to Philly to buy a house on the Maine Line at the end of '09. Reading Ms. Smerconish's article highlights the need to find a good BUYER's agent. I will not be hiring Ms. Smerconish; I can get propaganda for free.
Response to Mr. Grunwald
Mar. 10, 2008 at 8:20 AM
Posted by Anonymous
Do you honestly believe that people are waiting to be told that all is safe? That is pretty optimistic. The problem comes from people ignoring fundamentals and "feeling" that now is a good time to buy. They romove logic and add emotion. They fall in love with houses and think of all of the things they will give up if they can just get their dream place, even if it costs 30% more than they can afford. This problem has everything to do with the ratio of income to housing prices being beyond any fundamentals or reason.
Mark Grunwald is a Main Line Realtor...
Mar. 10, 2008 at 8:41 AM
Posted by Anonymous
Well Mark, how about you give us the hard facts???
foot in mouth
Mar. 13, 2008 at 6:20 AM
Posted by ben franklin
well after looking at the year end report published on the very site this article was written, i think lavina officially is removing her foot from mouth. just about every zip code is down in price from 2006 and any gains reported were nominal. so much for matt lauer ruining the market. i can't wait to see 08's figures.
Get that listing
Mar. 14, 2008 at 11:54 AM
Posted by Anonymous
It seems that Ms. Smirconish is frustrated with the lack of buyers. Any of us would be frustrated if we had told sellers we could get x for their house to get the listing and then had to later tell the seller to reduce the price. If the houses were priced properly in the first place would they not sell?
Lavinia is HOT Looking
Mar. 19, 2008 at 8:33 PM
Posted by Anonymous
Lavinia You have always been sweet looking
Don't listen to Realtors
Apr. 29, 2008 at 12:06 PM
Posted by mike macus
An objective opinion on real estate from a realtor is an oxymoron. The truth is in the numbers. Prices dropped and are continuing to drop and houses aren't selling. yeah, they're is a perception issue but that is what created the bubble and that is what pops the bubble. If it was all rational, prices wouldn't be 50% higher now than they were 5 years ago. But now we have to return to reality and stop listening to vested interests/schucksters.

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