Everything You Know About Philly Real Estate Is Wrong

What it may mean to you: The chance to buy into big-city life … for a paltry million. 


PERCEPTION 10.
We’ll stop seeing the word “slump” in Inky headlines by the end of 2008.

The Philly reality: Depending on whom you ask, we’ve either hit the bottom, and will bounce along for another year; we haven’t hit the bottom and won’t for another year; or we’re possibly facing a bottom that’s farther and lower than anybody’s guessed. Fact is, nobody has a crystal ball, and nobody can say for sure what a recession could do to the market correction.

But. Pretty much everyone agrees that the best-case scenario for Philly is another 12 to 18 months in the slide (no new building, continued price-dropping, continued slow buying activity and a slowed-down economy) before a bounce-back.

“It will be a multi-stage recovery, with a baseline forecast — barring recession — of 2009 for a price pickup,” Maher says. “When people think we’ve reached the bottom, sales will pick up first, then building activity, and construction will pick up after that. Then more workers will be hired to make up for the job losses, and prices will be the last thing to rebound.” 

People also seem to agree that a healthier market hinges on Philly’s general economy and livability. “Center City made tremendous progress under Rendell, and I think it will continue under Nutter,” Toll says. “If we could get decent public schools, then you’d really see something happening. What you see happening in New York City” — the strongest market in the country — “is a whole group of people who have kids and decide to stay in the city. And they have schools to send their kids to.”

“I’m hopeful that the new mayor will create jobs and influence corporations to move back to Center City,” Domb says. “The key to our economy is job creation, not building development. We need employment. We need to stop the brain drain. We need jobs, not just incentives to buy properties.”

What it may mean to you: Peace of mind and an even better Philly … eventually.